Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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250
FXUS64 KLIX 121026
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
426 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1028MB HIGH OVER THE MID SOUTH
WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS OVER EAST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
NORTHEAST CONUS. IN ADDITION...A DISTURBANCE WAS OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SCATTERED MID LAYER CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EAST
TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND ISOLATED IN NATURE OVER NORTH
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WILL INSERT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TODAY.  THE MAJOR TROUGH AXIS WAS
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVER OKLAHOMA WILL
SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP THICKNESS LAYERS
STEADY FOR ONE MORE DAY AND MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE
SLOW TO NIL UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVES OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THE VIGOROUS PACIFIC WAVE WILL MOVE
ONSHORE THE WEST COAST TODAY AND APPROACH THE PLAINS SUNDAY.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO VALLEY/TENNESSEE
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OFF THE
EAST COAST...THICKNESS LAYERS WILL START TO INCREASE SLOWLY ON
SATURDAY AND A TAD MORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS A RESULT...HIGH
TEMPS MAY REACH THE LOWER 70AS AT A FEW SPOTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AS THE PACIFIC WAVE APPROACHES...PRECIP WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG OR
JUST AHEAD THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT. EURO AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER...EURO HAS MORE MID INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT
THAN GFS...GFS FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TS MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NOW AND GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...SEVERE STORMS NOT LIKELY. A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT
ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY AND
BOTH HAVE SOME MID LAYER INSTABILITY. GFS IS A LITTLE FAST WITH
CLEARING ON SATURDAY WHILE EURO IS SLOWER WITH SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BLEND A BIT AND MAINTAIN RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY FOR NOW. 18

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AT
ALL TERMINALS. WELL ESTABLISHED STRATOCU CLOUD DECK TO THE
NORTHWEST IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. CIGS SHOULDN/T BE MUCH LOWER THAN 5KFT AS LOWER CLOUDS
MOVE IN. LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL LA AND MS MAY REACH AS FAR
SOUTH AS MCB AND BTR BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH SUNDAY. ITS PROXIMITY TO THE GULF COAST WILL KEEP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT RELAXED BUT SUCH THAT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST. THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL YIELD GENERALLY LIGHTER
OFFSHORE WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS IN OFFSHORE WATERS AND LESS THAN
THAT NEARSHORE/TIDAL LAKES. SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 FOOT RANGE.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN BY MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS RISING TO 2 TO 3 FEET AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST AND A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES. A SOUTHERLY STREAM
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY MORNING BUT WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. WINDS WILL QUICKLY ROTATE AROUND TO NORTH
WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY DECAYS AND POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TOWARDS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  44  68  44 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  66  47  70  47 /  10  10   0   0
ASD  64  43  68  46 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  65  47  67  49 /  10  10  10   0
GPT  61  43  65  47 /  10  10  10   0
PQL  62  39  65  42 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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