Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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415
FXUS64 KLIX 270146
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
846 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014


.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUED TO DEPICT DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE IN THE
PROFILE CONFINED BELOW 700 MB. ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT
AND A WEAK INVERSION WAS NOTED NEAR 700 MB. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW PREVAILED IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS. WESTERLY FLOW WAS OBSERVED IN
THE UPPER LEVELS. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MORGAN CITY IS
SPREADING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF OUR CWA AND COASTAL WATERS. NORTHERN EDGE OF
CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS MOVED NORTHWARD OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND HAS MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS BATON
ROUGE...HAMMOND AND SLIDELL. HIGH PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE HAS
PUMPED DRIER AIR INTO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHERE DEW
POINTS HAVE FALLEN TO THE MID 60S...AND EVEN LOWER 60S IN A FEW
SPOTS. TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES MAKING FOR A
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE LATE AUGUST AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM...

GULF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST
OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. AS TENNESSEE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD...DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BE DISPLACED...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH...HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO BLEND IN BETTER WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

BY FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
EXTENDING INTO TEXAS WILL PICK UP A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING FROM
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND CARRY IT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. THIS WILL BEGIN INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ON FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT ON
FRIDAY...BUT STILL AROUND NORMAL. 35

LONG TERM...

AS UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE GREAT PLAINS TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE
AREA...WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH CHANCE ON
SUNDAY. AS TROF LIFTS OUT FOR LABOR DAY...WE RETURN TO THE USUAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. 35

AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN MOST TAF SITES
SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND ISSUE SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS
IF NECESSARY. MAIN EXCEPTION IS KHUM WHERE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER IS
A BIT HIGHER AND VCTS GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DAYTIME CLOUD BASE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT. 95/DM

MARINE...

WILL CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OVER MOST OF THE OPEN
WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT DROP IT FROM THE
SOUNDS WHERE WINDS HAVE EASED OFF FROM THIS MORNING. BEYOND
TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUNDS AND OPEN WATERS INTO FRIDAY. OVER
THE WEEKEND...THE WINDS WILL HAVE A BIT MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT...BUT STILL DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  93  71  92 /  10  10  20  20
BTR  71  93  73  93 /  10  20  20  20
ASD  74  93  73  93 /  20  20  20  20
MSY  77  91  77  91 /  20  30  20  20
GPT  76  92  75  91 /  20  20  20  20
PQL  72  92  71  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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