Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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108
FXUS64 KLIX 110531
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1131 PM CST WED DEC 10 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CST WED DEC 10 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS LAYERS OF LOWERING HIGH
CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/DISTURBANCE OVER TEXAS...WILL LIKELY BLOCK OUT MOST OF THE
STARS AND MOONLIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT FALL AS MUCH AS EARLIER
FORECAST...SO RAISED THE LOWS ABOUT TWO DEGREES WHICH MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH IN SOME AREAS. A FEW OF THE EASTERN AREAS DROPPED A BIT
FASTER BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASED...BUT THEY HAVE LEVELED OFF IN
THE LAST HOUR. FROST IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. 22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST WED DEC 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY WITH
NUMEROUS LOCATIONS AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE TRIED TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST BUT SLOWLY ERODE THE
FURTHER EAST THEY PUSH.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN SET
UP OVER THE REGION WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...A
RIDGE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND AN APPROACHING L/W TROUGH
OVER THE ERN PAC. THIS PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE BUT SLOW WITH THE
MID LVL RIDGE NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH OVER THE REGION UNTIL EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND EVEN MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE DRY AND COOL SIDE. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODERATE FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK UP AROUND
TO JUST ABV NORMAL (MID 60S TO NEAR 70) AND LOWS NEAR NORMAL (LOWER
TO MID 40S). NO RAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH SUN NIGHT. /CAB/

LONG TERM...OVERALL MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION MON/TUE
NEXT WEEK BUT BOTH ALSO AGREE THAT THE IMPACTS WILL BE FAIRLY
MINIMAL. LATEST TRENDS HAS THE DISTURBANCE COMING OUT OF THE DESERT
SW LIFTING FURTHER TO OUR NORTH WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS REMAINING
NORTH OF THE REGION. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND IT
LOOKS LIKE WE MAY ONLY SEE SCT LIGHT SHRA LATE MON AND MAINLY MON
NIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO PULL MENTION OF TSRA AS MDLS ARE SUGGESTING
VERY LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...EVEN THE SHOWALTERS IS
POSITIVE THE ENTIRE TIME. COMBINE THAT WITH THE LACK OF DECENT
DYNAMICS AND TSRA MAY BE VERY DIFFICULT TO COME BY. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TUE. /CAB/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH SOME
INVADING HIGH CLOUDS BASED AROUND 14KFT. THERE MAY BE SOME HAZINESS
PRESENT DUE TO SMOKE FROM WOOD FIRES PREVALENT ACROSS THE LARGER
AREA. 24/RR

MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED AND WINDS HAVE BACKED
OFF CONSIDERABLY FROM WHERE THEY WERE EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND WEEKEND. LOOK FOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS 12 KTS OR LESS AND
SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  37  59  38  61 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  40  62  40  65 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  38  61  39  63 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  45  61  44  63 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  38  60  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  34  59  37  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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