Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 231757 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1157 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...

BASED ON PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LATEST NEW GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT ANY HIGHER OR LOWER THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL RESULT IN IMPACTS
TO THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER WE
FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY BEFORE THE ROUTINE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE TO PROVIDE A LONGER HEADS UP TO DECISION MAKERS.

THE 12Z GFS HAS A LOWER POP /PRECIPITATION CHANCES/ AND QPF
TONIGHT THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...HOWEVER THE 12Z NAM REMAINS
WETTER AND CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE OTHER MAJOR
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS TEMPERATURES. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAT THE EXTREME NORTHWEST AREAS LIKE WILKINSON
COUNTY...NORTHERN/WESTERN AMITE COUNTY...NORTHERN POINTE COUPEE
PARISH...AND PORTIONS OF THE FELICIANAS WILL DROP TO 31 OR 32
DEGREES IN TIME FOR ICING TO OCCUR...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY AREA. ANY
IMPACTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED ROADWAYS LIKE BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. EVEN IF THE QPF AND POP VERIFIES LOWER THAN
FORECAST...THERE WOULD STILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A GOOD CHANCE OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON THE ELEVATED STRUCTURES
TO ICE UP. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY NW OF BTR TO MCB
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MON EVENING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015/

.AVIATION...

..18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR OVERRUNS A
COLD POOL OF AIR AT THE SURFACE. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 500 TO 1000 FEET...ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO 1500 FEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
OVERALL...A COMBINATION OF IFR AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD PUSH
VISIBILITIES DOWN INTO MVFR RANGE. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF THE
RAIN CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
12Z TOMORROW AT KMCB. GIVEN THE LOW CHANCE...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE
THE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OUT OF THE KMCB TAF FOR NOW. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  42  31  46  40 /  60  70  30  50
BTR  45  34  47  39 /  60  60  40  50
ASD  48  36  49  44 /  60  60  50  50
MSY  49  40  48  46 /  50  60  50  50
GPT  48  37  49  46 /  50  60  40  50
PQL  48  36  49  44 /  50  60  40  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST FELICIANA...POINTE COUPEE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AMITE...PIKE...AND WILKINSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$







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