Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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507
FXUS64 KLIX 132113
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT HAS MADE FOR A QUITE A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WITH SOME
OF THE FAR INLAND LOCATIONS RUNNING ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 70S. THE FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST.
THIS HAS GREATLY LIMITED THE INLAND PENETRATION OF CONVECTION TODAY.
THE FRONT GOT ITS PUSH SOUTH MAINLY BY DENSITY FROM THE COOL AIRMASS
SINCE THERE IS AN ELONGATED WEST TO EAST RIDGE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. UNDERCUTTING
THIS RIDGE IS A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE FEATURE THAT HAD BEEN PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN BANDS SOUTH OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTION HAS SINCE BECOME
MORE ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON. FINALLY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL SWIRL ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVING
WEST. THIS FEATURE DOES NOT HAVE ANY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IS
PRETTY MUCH DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.SHORT TERM...

A STEADY STATE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE WEAKENING
FRONT LINGERING NEAR THE COAST AND WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES MAINTAINING A MODERATE FEED OF MOISTURE
BELOW THE DRIER MID LEVELS. HAVE GONE WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN
THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE ON SUNDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN ON MONDAY UNDERNEATH A MARITIME RIDGE ALOFT. THIS WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL AFTER A COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY TODAY.

.LONG TERM...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...HOWEVER A DEEPENING MID/UPPER TROUGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SEND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO AREAS JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF ALONG WITH WEAK SEA AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND STALL NEAR THE
COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRY THINGS OUT...ESPECIALLY
OVER INLAND AREAS WHERE 60S FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE MORE
COMMON. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR DECK SLOWLY ERODING FROM SE-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CLEAR
TO VFR AT KMCB AROUND 01Z...KBTR SOON. OTHER LOCATIONS HAVE LIFTED
TO VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION WAS RE-IGNITING ON
EASTERN LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAY IMPACT KNEW AT LEAST WITH
VCSH/VCTS IN THE SHORT-TERM. OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW THREAT REMAINDER OF TODAY. RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY
WERE TRIMMED TO 30 PERCENT SOUTHERN TERMINALS...WHICH MAY WARRANT
PROB30 GROUPS AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...

WEAK FRONTAL B0UNDARY WILL LONGER NEAR THE COAST FOR A FEW DAYS
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOWER PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH...VARYING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF INVERTED
TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE FEATURES...WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY EASTERLY
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STARTING MONDAY...A
LIGHTER WIND REGIMES IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE MARINE
AREA. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. MONITORING INVEST 92L.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  88  71  90 /  20  20  20  60
BTR  68  89  73  91 /  20  20  20  60
ASD  72  89  74  89 /  20  30  20  60
MSY  76  89  77  90 /  30  30  20  60
GPT  74  89  74  90 /  20  30  20  60
PQL  71  90  72  90 /  20  30  30  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





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