Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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497
FXUS64 KLIX 150955
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
455 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE TO THE UPPER LEVELS
WAS LOCATED OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO WESTERN ALABAMA AND THE
ADJACENT NORTH GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. A PLEASANTLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WAS SETTLED
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
OCCASIONALLY GO CLOSE ENOUGH TO CALM TO ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
SPIKE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE COOLER NORTHERN AREAS.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST TODAY...THEN START TO ACCELERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LEAVING A FLATTER/WEAKER ZONAL /WEST TO EAST
FLOW/ OVER THE GULF COAST STATES ON FRIDAY. THE BUILDING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO MODIFY AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. OVERALL...THE MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE APPEAR TO BE
HANDLING THE TEMPERATURES WELL THROUGH FRIDAY. ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW 80 WILL OCCUR TODAY BEFORE A NOTICEABLE WARM UP
TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY. THE LOWS TONIGHT ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S WITH MOSTLY 50S TO NEAR 60
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY COMFORTABLE THROUGH TOMORROW
BEFORE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE OCCURS ON FRIDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY CLEAR...THUS THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS ZERO THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY WILL RACE EAST ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THEN START TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL CARVE OUT ANOTHER LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY THAT WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY EAST OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO MONDAY. AS FAR AS THE GULF COAST SENSIBLE WEATHER
GOES...THIS PATTERN WILL SEND A DRY AND WEAK...WEST TO EAST ORIENTED
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A CONTINUED WARMING TREND INTO SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. IT WILL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH INDICATING A POSSIBLE TROPICAL OR
SUB-TROPICAL TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS SOME TYPE OF SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS FROM THE PACIFIC SIDE.
THE MODELS THEN INDICATE THIS LOW WILL MEANDER OR REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
OR WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT THIS
WOULD HAVE IS TO INCREASE EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND
ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THIS COULD IN TURN
RAISE TIDE LEVELS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MODEL CONSISTENCY AND
PERSISTENCE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

22/TD
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A DRY AND STABLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION.  THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH AROUND 12Z AT KNEW.  OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.  32

&&

.MARINE...

WEST-NORTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL LINGER OVER THE
GULF COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.  AS A RESULT...HAVE EXTENDED
THE EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE
GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS TREND OF
DECREASING WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH THE GRADIENT FLOW FALLING
BELOW 10 KNOTS BY THURSDAY AND REMAINING SO THROUGH SATURDAY.  SEAS
WILL CORRESPONDINGLY FALL FROM 3 TO 5 FEET TODAY DOWN TO AROUND ONE
FOOT OR LESS BY THE WEEKEND.  THE HIGH WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ALSO FORM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF.  INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION...AND EXPECT TO SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS RETURN BY MONDAY.  SEAS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET ON MONDAY. 32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  46  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  77  50  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  77  45  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  78  57  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  77  49  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  78  46  81  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





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