Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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467
FXUS64 KLIX 260813
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
313 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING
WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDING
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK UPPER
TROF EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO WEST TEXAS. CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
GULF HAS MOVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND IS AIDING IN
HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. AWAY FROM MARINE
INFLUENCES...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AT 2
AM. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM HAS ACTUALLY FALLEN A LITTLE
BIT WITH THE LATEST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. THROUGH ABOUT 18Z
SATURDAY...THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING OF
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...AS CAPPING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS WE GET INTO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...GREAT PLAINS TROF WILL PULL IMPULSES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING
CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF IMPULSES WITH
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. FORECAST SOLUTION OUT OF WPC HAS
TRENDED TOWARD AN ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS A BIT
STRONGER...QUICKER AND WETTER THAN THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS ABOUT THE
EASTERN 75 PERCENT OF THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE
TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY EVENING AND OVER
2 INCHES INTO SUNDAY. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL ON HIGHS TODAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE HELD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
CLOUDS/PRECIP...AND MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH IF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN OCCURS. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

WE MAY BE A LITTLE SLOW WITH THE ENDING OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY...BUT WILL LEAVE SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN FOR MONDAY
AS IT IS LIKELY TO TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE THE UPPER TROF AXIS
FINALLY PASSES EAST OF THE AREA. A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS TO FOLLOW
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT
LARGE SCALE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY...AND WILL BE SHOWING RAIN RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON
THURSDAY.

BEYOND THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AND FORECAST DETAILS
GET MURKY. THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION WANTS TO LEAVE A SIGNIFICANT
PIECE OF ENERGY OVER THE ARKLATEX FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND WHILE
THE GFS MOVES A STRONG TROF AND FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE A RATHER WET WEEKEND FOR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A
STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY...AND COOLER WEATHER...PROBABLY 10 DEGREES OR SO...TO THE
AREA FOR SUNDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE A PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBYS DUE TO PATCHY FOG AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO AND AROUND SUNRISE. 11

&&

.MARINE...

A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO THE CONTINUED COMBINATION OF A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE VARIABLE SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING NORTHERLY MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AREA. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FEET DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND SEAS LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. 11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  64  84  69 /  10  10  30  50
BTR  86  67  85  69 /  10  10  30  40
ASD  85  65  85  69 /  10  10  40  60
MSY  84  71  84  73 /  10  10  40  60
GPT  85  68  84  72 /  10  10  50  70
PQL  84  65  84  70 /  10  10  50  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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