Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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119
FXUS64 KLIX 231703
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1203 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD ABATE BY 01Z AND
REDEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 16Z THURSDAY. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
COLORADO. 5H TEMPS ARE -8C ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...A RELATIVE COOL POCKET AROUND AND EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
GFS AND EURO INITIALIZED A VORT MAX OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A 2MB
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT 12Z
SHOWED THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WEST EDGE HAS MADE IT TO LAFAYETTE
WITH 1.9 INCHES AT SLIDELL AND 1.5 INCHES AT LAKE CHARLES. 18

DISCUSSION...
WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT...A COOL 5H TEMP ALOFT AND
ELEVATED PW VALUES IN PLACE...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND IN LAND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT WEST
THROUGH TODAY AND THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO THE LOW AND MID LAYER
NORTHERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST. THEREFORE...EXPECTED
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND A FEW STRONG ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WEST OF I-55 AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
GUSTY WINDS FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OUT WEST WILL PROVIDE SOME DRYING IN THE MID LAYERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BUT
PW VALUES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 1.8 INCHES THURSDAY TO 1.5 TO
1.6 INCHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...5H TEMPS WILL RISE
TO -6C BY THEN. SOME SUPPRESSIVE FACTORS WILL CURTAIL CONVECTION A
BIT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INTENSE SURFACE HEATING AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN STILL YIELD ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE
DAY. A FEW AREAS MAY REACH THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 18

AVIATION...FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS CAN EB EXPECTED. THERE
MAY BE A ISLTD AREAS OF TEMPO MVFR VSBYS UNTIL SUNRISE BUT AFTER
THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RULE THE DAY OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO LOOK
FOR MOST TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY AND
THROUGH THE AFTN. /CAB/

MARINE...THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FCST. MOST OF THE TIME WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF 10-12 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS EAST OF THE MS
DELTA WILL OCCUR. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 3 FT OR LOWER. MDLS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER RARE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST
NEXT WEEK. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  70 /  40  20  30  20
BTR  92  72  94  73 /  50  20  30  20
ASD  90  71  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  90  75  91  77 /  30  30  30  20
GPT  89  75  91  74 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  89  71  91  72 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









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