Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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699
FXUS64 KLIX 250355
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
955 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY FALLEN TO THE ORIGINALLY FORECAST LOWS
TONIGHT IN A FEW AREAS FROM NORTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES TO THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST...SO HAVE SENT UPDATES TO LOWER BOTH THE
HOURLY VALUES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS ON
TRACK AT THIS TIME. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ON SUNDAY...SO
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS SINCE
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

VERY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS DOWN TO
0.27 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 0.5 INCHES BELOW THE TYPICAL VALUE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS TONIGHT WERE FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEAR
THE SURFACE AND THEN WERE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST UNTIL ABOUT
17000 FEET. WINDS ABOVE THIS HEIGHT WERE FROM THE WEST. A PEAK
WIND GUST OF 124 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 42400 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND.

00Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS EVENING THAT
LASTED 104 MINUTES. THE BALLOON ATTAINED A HEIGHT OF 19.7 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND BEFORE BURSTING NEAR DAUPHIN ISLAND 94 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE REGION AND THIS WAS THE REASON FOR
THE BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. EXPECT MORE OF THIS TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THE ONLY MAJOR CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND A FEW PASSING CLOUDS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 30S TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. IT LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT THINGS COULD BE A LITTLE ON THE COOL
SIDE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE GETS REINFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL COOL OFF TEMPERATURES BUT WE DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRY. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
FIRMLY IN PLACE AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S FOR
UPCOMING WEEK.

GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME TODAY AS BOTH MODELS HOLD OFF ON
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. THE PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE RAINFALL
MOVING IN IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. WELL TODAY GUIDANCE
IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE HIGH AND PROGRESSION OF A
SYSTEM. NOW THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT SHOT OF RAIN
DOES NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. SO
HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO SHOW THIS TREND. THIS MEANS THAT IF THIS
IS CORRECT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY RAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
13/MH

AVIATION...
NO ISSUES AVIATION WISE AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FCST. /CAB/

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE AREA AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
HAS EASED ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LIMITS AND ALSO EXERCISE CAUTION LIMITS. EXPECT WINDS TO
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER
AIR WILL LIKELY BRING WINDS BACK UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED AT
SOME POINT ON SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. 13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  37  63  37  54 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  40  65  39  57 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  37  64  39  56 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  42  64  44  56 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  38  63  40  56 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  35  63  37  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE
     ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE
     ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







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