Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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474
FXUS64 KLIX 120153
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
853 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014


.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
SUCCESSFUL BALLOON LAUNCH THIS EVENING WITH NO ISSUE. LAUNCH CAME BETWEEN
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED AROUND THE WFO
SLIDELL. NO SHOWERS OR LIGHTNING DURING LAUNCH NOR PREP TIME
BEFORE LAUNCH. AFTN AREA SHOWERS CONTINUED WITH 2.13 INCHES
PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE AND PLENTY OF SURFACE HEATING.
AS A RESULT OUTFLOW FROM THESE LOCAL SHOWERS HELPED SETUP A NORTH
7-10KT WSPD AND SLIGHT INVERSION AT SURFACE AFTER 23Z 9/11.
HOWEVER FROM 100FT UP TO 31000 FT...SE WIND FLOW DOMINATED THE
SOUNDING GIVING WAY TO EASTERLY WINDS 34000FT AND UP INTO THE
STRATOSPHERE. THIS EASTERLY FLOW PUSHED THE BALLOON WELL TO THE
WEST REACHING 111780 FT THIS LAUNCH.

MGW

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FRONTAL ZONE SHOWN PROMINENTLY ACROSS TENNESSEE...THROUGH ARKANSAS
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. RAINFALL HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY HEAVY IN THE
MEMPHIS AREA. AN OUTFLOW FEATURE HAS EMANATED FROM THE FRONTAL
ZONE ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR THAT WORK SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...DEEP FETCHED GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
INLAND AND WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
EVENTUAL FRONTAL ZONE LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN GULF FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN AS AN OPEN WAVE AND BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE CONVERGENT FOCI FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL CONCENTRATION PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERSECTS THE STATIONARY FRONT AND ANY GULF AND
LAKE-BREEZE BOUDARIES. QPF DEPICTIONS ARE DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN
IN THIS REGIME BUT THERE IS A CONCERN OF ESTABLISHING A BAND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OVER A FEW HOURS
ORIENTED IN GENERALLY SOUTH-NORTH SWATH ABOUT 5-10 MILES WIDE
SOMEWHERE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREAL AVERAGES SHOULD REMAIN
MANAGEABLE AND HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL CONSIDERING THAT
MOST LOCATIONS ARE AT BASE FLOW AT THIS TIME WITH CAPACITY FOR
DRAINAGE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WARM AND HUMID SIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SLOWLY DISSOLVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOMING
MASKED BY DAILY GULF BREEZE REGIME MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS EACH DAY AND QUITE POSSIBLY SOME
ISOLATED TROPICAL NOCTURNAL SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES MAY LOWER A FEW DEGREES OR SO MONDAY MORNING
IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI BUT RESORT TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR ALL
AREAS THEREAFTER. 24/RR

AVIATION...
SCATTERED...SLOW MOVING...CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF MOST
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES GENERALLY IN THE FL025-FL040
RANGE. IF CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACTS A TERMINAL...LIKELY TO PRODUCE
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES AND WILL HANDLE WITH AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 02Z AT MOST TERMINALS. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT KMCB AROUND SUNRISE ON
FRIDAY...BUT RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES WERE BRIEF THIS MORNING AND
HAVE NOT CARRIED IN FORECAST FOR NOW. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
LATE OVERNIGHT FOR KHUM...KMSY...KNEW AND KGPT WITH VCTS INDICATED
AT ALL TERMINALS BY MIDMORNING. 35

MARINE...
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EAST GULF BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND BECOMING ABSORBED WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE WEEKEND. CONVECTION MAY BECOME A BIT PRONOUNCED
OVER THE THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED ROUGHER CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS
BELOW 3 FEET FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  90  72  87 /  30  60  40  50
BTR  74  91  72  88 /  30  60  40  50
ASD  74  91  73  89 /  30  60  40  50
MSY  76  91  77  90 /  30  60  40  50
GPT  75  89  75  89 /  30  50  40  40
PQL  72  90  71  90 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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