Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
475
FXUS64 KLIX 272043
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CONSIDERABLY LIGHT RADAR COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CONFINED
TO GULF BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM NEW IBERIA TO THIBODAUX TO CHALMETTE.
DEEP LAYERED WESTERLIES ARE INHIBITING INLAND PENETRATION OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND MUCH OF WHAT IS OUT THERE WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. MEANWHILE...CONTINENTAL COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
INDIANA TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL GAIN MORE TROUGHING ALOFT TO
SEND THE FRONT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING ARRIVAL INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF CWA PRIOR TO SUNSET THEN MOVING TO THE COAST BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. THIS IS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH ONGOING FORECAST.
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING IN SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS STILL SHOW FRONT CLEARING THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY BUT ARE MORE IN CONSENSUS WITH KEEPING
BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF BEFORE DRAWING
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER IMPULSE EJECTS
FROM THE WEST THAT WILL LIKELY INDUCE A WAVE UPON THE SURFACE
FRONT OVER EAST TEXAS TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SO WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD
PRIOR TO RETURNING TO A WET PATTERN LATE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD RANGING AROUND 4000
FEET WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 02Z. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AFTER 02Z...BUT A WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT FOG TO KMCB AND KHUM AFTER 08Z. THIS FOG WILL LINGER
THROUGH 12Z...BUT WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES
WARM. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM 13Z
THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW AS ANOTHER CU FIELD DEVELOPS. EXPECT CEILINGS
TO RISE ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 16Z.  AFTER 18Z...CONVECTIVE RISK
INCREASES AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.  VCTS WORDING MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 32

&&

.MARINE...
A LITTLE TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT CURRENTLY UNDERWAY WILL BRING
THE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KT ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND WATERS EAST OF THE
RIVER. THESE ENHANCED WINDS SHOULD LESSEN LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN
LIGHT AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT TAKES PLACE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE
HIGH GUSTS AN GENERATE LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR
GETS TRANSPORTED TO THE WARM WATER SURFACE. FRONTAL ZONE IS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE RATHER QUICKLY AND WIND FIELD FLATTENS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  94  69  89 /  10  40  30  10
BTR  76  97  70  94 /  10  40  40  30
ASD  76  94  74  90 /  10  40  40  20
MSY  77  93  75  89 /  20  30  40  40
GPT  81  93  74  89 /  10  40  40  10
PQL  75  93  73  89 /  20  40  40  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
32






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.