Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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409
FXUS64 KLIX 201312
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
812 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

...12Z SOUNDING...

A SHALLOW...BUT STRONG SURFACE BASED INVERSION WAS NOTED IN THE
SOUNDING THIS MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE FULLY DECOUPLED FROM THE
REMAINDER OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WINDS TURNED CALM AND
TEMPERATURES PLUNGED OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...THERE WAS A NEARLY
15 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURE FROM THE TOP OF THE INVERSION 500
FEET ABOVE THE GROUND TO THE SURFACE. ABOVE THIS INVERSION
LAYER...A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINED OVER THE AREA. IN
FACT...ANOTHER ELEVATED INVERSION WAS NOTED FROM 950 TO 925MB DUE
TO AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. THIS CONTINUED DRY
AIR ADVECTION HAS ALSO DROPPED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN FROM
0.72 INCHES LAST EVENING TO 0.64 INCHES THIS MORNING. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...EXPECT TO SEE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY. 32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE AS MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR OUTER GULF WATERS WHERE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SIDE EFFECT OF THE FORECAST
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THAT THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SLOW
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 60S DEPENDING ON THE DAY AND LOCATION.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MVFR CATEGORY VISIBILITIES.

MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS FORECAST AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR SOUTH GULF
BY MID WEEK WHICH WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE PERIOD.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  53  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  80  55  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  80  53  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  80  60  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  78  58  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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