Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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331
FXUS64 KLIX 260604
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1204 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A
SURGE OF SOME LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE
SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI INTO INTERIOR SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI...HOWEVER THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BRING CIGS TO ANY
OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE WINDS AT KNEW AND POSSIBLY KMSY
COULD STILL INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH A PEAK
WIND GUST OF 163 KNOTS AROUND 35400 FEET. THIS JET STREAK IS PART
OF THE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A MAJOR WINTER STORM TO THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. CLOSER TO
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...WINDS HAVE BEEN
MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT TODAY YIELDING WIND GUSTS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH OVER LAND AREAS. WINDS ASIDE...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS DRY. TEMPERATURES BELOW 7200 FEET ARE HIGHER
/WARMER/ AND ABOVE 7200 FEET ARE LOWER /COOLER/ THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

00Z BALLOON INFO: THE 96 MINUTE FLIGHT THIS EVENING WAS ROUTINE
REACHING A HEIGHT OF 20.1 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BURSTING OVER
BAYOU LA BATRE AL 93 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...IT HAS BEEN A GORGEOUS DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MARDI
GRAS PREPARATIONS AND EVEN A LOCAL MARATHON COULDNT HAVE ASKED FOR
BETTER WEATHER. LUCKILY WINDS WHICH ARE NOW RATHER BREEZY HELD OFF
MOST OF THE MORNING. WINDS ARE QUICKLY RESPONDING TO A SFC LOW WHICH
HAS BEEN DIGGING INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL.

REALLY NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE FCST...EARLY OR LATE. THE FIRST
60 HRS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A DRY AND A PLEASANT(MAYBE A LITTLE
COOL ON MON) AIRMASS. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT IS ON THE WAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT IS PART OF THE MAJOR
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE NERN CONUS/NEW ENGLAND AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN FACT IF YOU ACTUALLY ARE CURIOUS AND ARE BORED
BY OUR WEATHER JUST GO CHECK OUT THE FCST THE THE NEW ENGLAND AREA.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A L/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS...RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL SEND A
THAT AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THROUGH HERE TONIGHT. THIS WILL COOL
THINGS OFF AGAIN WITH HIGHS TOMORROW ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY. THE PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A LARGE BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE CONUS WEST OF THE MS RIVER BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPS FOR AFTN HIGHS TUE AND WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE
SFC AND NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. /CAB/

LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE SEEM TO BE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE NEXT RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK AND THE REGION
STAYING DRY LIKELY UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.

NEXT S/W IN THE NRN STREAM WILL DROP THROUGH CNTRL CAN AND TWRDS THE
OH/TN VALLEYS WED AND WED NIGHT AND THIS WILL DRIVE ANOTHER WEAK AND
DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND ESPECIALLY THE WEEK A LARGE CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE BAJA REGION AND THIS WILL SLOWLY WORK TWRDS THE DESERT SW THIS
WEEKEND. IT WILL TRY TO LEAD TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN AND POSSIBLY
EVEN WSW FLOW ALOFT. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE TRYING TO DEVELOP
IN THE WRN GULF COULD HELP TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES
LATE NEXT WEEKEND. WHAT COULD BE INTERESTING A FEW DAYS LATER INTO
NEXT WEEK WILL BE WHEN THIS LOW FINALLY KICKS OUT AND MOVES ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. /CAB/

MARINE...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE COASTAL WATERS IS IN THE FIRST 36
HRS. THE STRONG LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY IS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
THIS HAS ALREADY LED TO WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS AND GUSTS NEAR
30KTS THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND COULD EVEN GET A TAD
STRONG AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND CAA CAN KICK IN SOME.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW WIND GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE IN THE
OPEN WATERS. ALL ZONES WILL BE UNDER A SCY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN WINDS SHOULD SLACK OFF BEFORE MIDDAY
TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. WINDS WONT COMPLETELY ABATE
UNTIL MON NIGHT. /CAB/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL NEXT 24-30 HOURS ALL
TERMINALS. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  39  55  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  41  58  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  42  57  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  45  57  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  42  57  42  64 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  41  57  40  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







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