Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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968
FXUS64 KLIX 230209
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
909 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015


.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED THAT DRIER AIR WAS WORKING INTO THE
REGION AT ALL LEVELS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE HAD DECREASED
TO 1.19 INCHES. WEST SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILED
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH A 115 KNOT JET NOTED 250 MB. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...

THE WINDOW IS CLOSING FOR NEW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MOST LAND AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE FAR EAST.
SURFACE WINDS HAVE VEERED AROUND TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST AND DRIER
AIR HAS ALSO BEEN WORKING WEST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME WEAK POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION MAY
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE WARM AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS THAT IS IN PLACE.

BREAKS IN CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST WILL BRING COOLER LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FAIRLY SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A DEEP INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP AN
OVERCAST LOW CLOUD DECK AROUND MONDAY MORNING THAT MAY PERSIST IN
MANY AREAS INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATE.
THIS WILL MAKE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY...BUT THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH AFTERNOON CLEARING FOR HIGHS TO RECOVER BACK TO
THE LOWER 70S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE BEGINNING OF MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD ALLOW FAIRLY STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WILL LIKELY
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE DEWPOINTS. RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING ON TUESDAY.

SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AROUND NEW ORLEANS WOULD SUPPORT SOME LOW TOPPED
SHOWERS BELOW A STRONG INVERSION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

A VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER
THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSHING EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ON
THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...SOME
SHOWERS MAY LINGER UNTIL THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIVING SOUTH...ALONG WITH A BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP MID/UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY BUT MUCH COOLER WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT AND A FEW COLDER NORTHERN
LOCATIONS COULD REACH THE UPPER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 60S ON FRIDAY BUT ONLY UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK UP TO THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY. 22/TD

AVIATION...

ALTHOUGH IT TOOK MUCH OF THE DAY...TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR
CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KJAN HAS A COLD FRONT THAT
APPEARS TO BE JUST WEST OF KBTR...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NEAR KLFT.
LOCAL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM WITH
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT WE
MAY GET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITHOUT IMPACTING ANY OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN...AND EXPECT LOWER
CEILINGS TO REDEVELOP A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE AT ALL TERMINALS AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE GENERALLY BECOMING MVFR. 35


MARINE...

FRONT MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SEE DRIER AND COOLER AIR
BRIEFLY ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY AN EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE OVER ALL WATERS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE IMPACT IN
ANY ONE AREA IS MORE LIKELY TO BE ROUGHLY 3-6 HOURS. WIND FIELD
SHOULD GRADUALLY RELAX BY MORNING ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY BENIGN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. HEADLINES MAY AGAIN BE NECESSARY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  54  70  51  76 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  56  73  54  79 /  10   0   0  10
ASD  57  73  53  77 /  20   0   0  10
MSY  59  71  59  76 /  20   0   0  10
GPT  59  71  55  74 /  20   0   0  10
PQL  58  73  53  76 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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