Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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592
FXUS64 KLIX 190806
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
306 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. EARLY THIS MORNING
CONVECTION HAS BEEN BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS AND
ALONG THE COAST IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS EXTREMELY MOISTURE
RICH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES. GIVEN
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH SOME OF
THE STORMS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL ALSO HELP SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE RATHER ROBUST ON
SUNDAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS TODAY AS SOME RELATIVELY DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA. 11

.LONG TERM...
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS DURING THE WORK WEEK WITH A GENERAL WEAKNESS BETWEEN THIS
RIDGE AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PREVAILING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI WILL
BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE DURING MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAY SEE SOMEWHAT LESS CONVECTION THAN EASTERN SECTIONS...
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK WHEN THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY HAVE
THE GREATEST IMPACT ON THE AREA. DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK WILL KEEP CONVECTION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE
CATEGORIES. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE
OFFING FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS
BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS AND RETROGRADES A LITTLE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF REDEVELOPING CONVECTION HAS BEEN A LITTLE
BIT DIFFICULT TO PORTRAY IN TAFS OVERNIGHT. IT SEEMS NOW THAT
CONVECTION HAS FILLED IN BETTER WE CAN GET A HANDLE ON SOME OF THE
TIMING FOR THE 12Z ISSUANCE. EXPECT A MIXTURE OF VFR...MVFR AND EVEN
IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS THERE ARE MANY
DIFFERENT FACTORS CAUSING CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS THERE OF
COURSE IS THE CONVECTION. THERE IS AN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AROUND AND
THAT HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY
BE SOME HEAVIER CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.  THIS
CONVECTION WILL TEND TO BE FOCUSED ALONG A WEAK MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
NEAR KHUM...KMSY...KNEW...AND KGPT.  13/MH

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED AND ADDED SOME AREAS TO THE FEW EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES FOR TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL TIGHT AND WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GRADIENT
WILL EASE LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IN RESPONSE WINDS
AND WAVES WILL EASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  70  89  70 /  50  30  30  20
BTR  88  73  90  73 /  50  30  30  20
ASD  87  74  89  72 /  60  40  40  30
MSY  87  76  90  76 /  60  40  40  30
GPT  87  74  89  75 /  60  40  50  30
PQL  87  72  89  72 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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