Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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207
FXUS64 KLIX 250100
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
800 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING/S BALLOON REACHED A HEIGHT OF 23.6 MILES ABOVE THE
GROUND AND BURST OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/
VALUES REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY AROUND 2 INCHES.
THERE IS DRIER AIR LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA AS SHOWN ON
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DRIER AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH...BUT THIS FRONT STALLS OUT BEFORE
IT MAKES IT THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI SO
NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN PW VALUES. OTHERWISE...THE
TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE IS GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER /WARMER/ THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AND THE HIGHEST WIND SPEED OF 17 KNOTS IS LOCATED AT
8.5 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED BUT WILL
PRODUCE A QUICK HALF IN TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IF IT GOES THROUGH
YOUR AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TOMORROW AN UPPER HIGH WILL
SHIFT INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AT THE SAME TIME THERE STILL
REMAINS A BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE AREA. MESOSCALE MODELS AND
GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT THIS WITH GREATER COVERAGE TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. WILL CARRY 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON SHOWING AN AN ACTIVE JET
PATTERN AND AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN
PART OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD AND THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THE FRONT MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE LOCALIZED BRIEF CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS. 24/RR

MARINE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE. MAIN
BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SUB-
LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. 13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  91  72  92 /  20  30  30  10
BTR  73  92  74  94 /  20  30  30  20
ASD  72  92  74  91 /  20  40  40  30
MSY  76  90  76  92 /  20  40  40  30
GPT  75  92  76  91 /  30  40  40  30
PQL  71  91  73  91 /  30  40  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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