892
FXUS64 KLIX 140848
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
348 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...WILL SEE A
COUPLE MORE MORNINGS WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL MINIMUMS NORTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACK ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL BE BATTLING THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT THE STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
FOR THURSDAY AND ALSO A CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ON THURSDAY. THE VORTICITY WITH THIS FEATURE IS NOT
REALLY ORGANIZED AND A SMALL IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH IT COULD BE
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER. AGAIN DRY AIR WILL BE LIMITING THE COVERAGE
AND POSSIBLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THIS IS THE ONLY MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS MOMENT. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT OF SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGING BEING IN PLACE AFTER THE UPPER LOW PASSAGE ON THURSDAY.
THIS MEANS NICE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE FIGHTING
THE SURFACE RIDGE PARKED OVER FLORIDA. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL NEXT 24-48 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS
INITIATING VARIABLE IN DIRECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY
AND PERSIST AT LIGHT LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR SITUATIONAL AWARENESS...MT POPOCATEPETL VOLCANO LOCATED 40 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MEXICO CITY NEAR PUEBLA AND ONE OF THE CLOSEST ACTIVE
VOLCANOES TO THE FORECAST AREA...HAS ERUPTED ON MAY 8TH...PRODUCING
VOLCANIC ASH INITIALLY TO FL220 THAT WAS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. SOME
RESIDUAL ASH PLUME REACHED THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
SUBSEQUENT DAYS. LATEST ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LIMITED TO JUST SULPHUR
DIOXIDE GAS EMISSIONS FROM THE MAIN VENT. THE NOAA VOLCANIC ASH
ADVISORY CENTER IS NO LONGER ISSUING ADVISORIES ON POPOCATEPETL. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...DETAILS AND LATEST ADVISORIES...PLEASE VISIT THE
NOAA OFFICE OF SATELLITE AND PRODUCT OPERATIONS WEB SITE...
HTTP://WWW.OSPO.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ATMOSPHERE/VAAC/INDEX.HTML.
THERE ARE NO AVIATION ADVISORIES POSTED FOR U.S. AIRSPACE REGARDING
POPOCATEPETL AT THIS TIME.  24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OR NEAR THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL
MAINTAIN EITHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OR WEAK ONSHORE FLOW REGIME
IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT RELATIVELY LOW
LEVELS. NO COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MONDAY. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  84  56  82  58 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  85  59  83  61 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  84  56  81  61 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  83  63  82  65 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  81  59  81  63 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  82  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$