Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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649
FXUS64 KLIX 232115
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
315 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO DISCUSS TODAY. STRONGEST STORMS THANKFULLY STAYED
OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING WHERE THE RICHER MOISTURE AND
BETTER INSTABILITY WERE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
AND ARIZONA. THE LOW WILL RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THE
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SWING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WITH A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. EVEN
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. EXPECT A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM MID 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS INTO HIGHER GEAR MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ALONG/NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10/12 CORRIDOR...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN COULD ALSO BLEED OVER INTO LAND AREAS IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE LAKE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND 60
DEGREES.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME SHOWERS AS THE JET STREAK ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH
ENHANCES LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. AM CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...A
REINFORCING HIGH WILL BUILD IN AND THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AND TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SQUALL LINE MOVED THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS WITHOUT TOO MUCH
FANFARE. DID MEASURE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS AS CONVECTION MOVED
THROUGH. THOUGH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN RELAXING THIS
EVENING...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS
TONIGHT AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR OPEN
WATERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A REINFORCING
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ARE AGAIN...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
GRADUALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME ADVECTION FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS NEAR KMSY...KNEW...KHUM...KASD...AND KGPT. ANY
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AROUND
DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR SURGES IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST OVER 20
KNOTS AT KMSY AND KNEW MONDAY MORNING. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  52  64  40  58 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  55  67  39  61 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  55  68  38  59 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  59  68  46  59 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  59  71  40  59 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  57  72  37  60 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





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