Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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166
FXUS64 KLIX 122142
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
442 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING
ACROSS THE PLAINS RESULTING IN ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLOWLY INCREASING WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. STRATUS DECK WILL DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN MIXED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG. ANOTHER WARM/HUMID DAY
IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT
ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL LIFT EAST ACROSS
TEXAS SUNDAY AND SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS LOUISIANA SUNDAY
NIGHT. A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PWS
INCREASING TO 1.6-1.8 INCHES. DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER
LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 100 KT JET STREAK AT 300 MB APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AFTN OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT LASTING
INTO MONDAY MORNING. FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR THIS PERIOD WITH HELICITIES OF 300-500 M2/S2. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MID MORNING MONDAY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY.
A STRONGER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY
MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. PWS
OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE
LESS IMPRESSIVE MONDAY AFTN/EVENING BUT INSTABILITY IS GREATER
WITH CAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG AND LIS OF -5 TO -7. HAVE LIKELY POPS
BLANKETED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVENING WITH A FEW SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT
RISK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP QUICKLY
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. A WINDY AND MUCH COOLER DAY EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL RUN
15-20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. A COLD NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SFC HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD RESULTING IN OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S FOR MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.

MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE GFS RESULTS IN A WET PATTERN WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE STRONG DISAGREEMENT.

14/MM


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING.
LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS 005-008 ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ABV 3 TO 4 KNOTS AT ALL TAF
POINTS AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD PREVENT PREVAILING DENSE FOG SUNDAY
MORNING. ERGO...VSBYS 2-3 MILES OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH SUNDAY. CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE WATERS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS
OF 20-30 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND VEER TO
THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.  14/MM

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  79  65  79 /  10  10  60  70
BTR  65  82  67  80 /  10  10  60  70
ASD  63  79  67  80 /  10  10  50  70
MSY  65  82  69  81 /  10  10  50  70
GPT  63  76  68  77 /   0  10  40  70
PQL  61  77  66  78 /   0  10  30  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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