544
FXUS64 KLIX 152026
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
326 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF SOUTH OF
APALACHICOLA. SURFACE LOW OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH THE
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. BOTH LOWS ARE MOVING
EAST NORTHEAST. MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AROUND 3 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ISSUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS WHETHER TO INCLUDE POPS IN THE
FORECAST. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING UPPER LOW NORTHEAST AND
OPENING IT UP INTO A WAVE. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE DRY...NAM
CARRIES CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN GFS AND NAM IS EVIDENT IN BUFR SOUNDINGS. NAM SHOWS AN
UNCAPPED AIRMASS WHILE GFS HAS A WEAK CAP. WITH MAIN LIFT WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA...BELIEVE THAN NAM POPS ARE TOO HIGH. WILL
KEEP VERY MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOONS.
AFTER TONIGHT AND TOMORROWS TEMPERATURES FALLING SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL READINGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

AFTER PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING
TAKES EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AROUND
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF IS A LITTLE WETTER THAN GFS...AND COULD
EVEN JUSTIFY A DRY FORECAST OFF THE GFS...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE TUESDAY AND CHANCE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KBTR...KMCB...AND KHUM WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO CIGS OR SLIGHT VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO THINKING IN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND FIELD NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH JUST
MODEST ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN TIME. PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW MAY IMPART A STEADY LONG FETCHED GROUND SWELL BUT SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE AND 6-8 SECOND PERIODS. 24/RR/35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  82  66  85 /  10  20  10  10
BTR  62  84  69  87 /  10  20  10  10
ASD  61  82  67  83 /  10  20  10  10
MSY  65  82  70  84 /  10  20  10  10
GPT  65  80  69  81 /  10  20  10  10
PQL  60  81  66  83 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$