Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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223
FXUS64 KLIX 182121
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
421 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE SURFACE IN THE GULF IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST.
AROUND HERE A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. CLOUDS BROK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES REALLY
TOOK OFF ACROSS THE AREA AND THAT ALLOWED FOR SOME AREAS TO
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. RIGHT NOW SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
BATON ROUGE AREA UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES.
HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT
EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF
THE DAY. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PULL OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND KEEP RAIN AT BAY. IT
SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL EASTER WEEKEND FOR OUR AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN THE AREA ON MONDAY HOWEVER THAT
WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS NORTH OF THE
AREA AND WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BUT
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH LIFE LEFT TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN. WILL CONTINUE
WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CARRY SOME POPS FOR TUESDAY. DEEP RIDGING
WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. 13/MH


&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL TREND FROM A MIX OF MVFR TO VFR CATEGORY CIGS TO
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN NEARLY
COMPLETE CLEARING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG
MAY IMPACT KMCB AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER AIRPORT OR TWO LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE ADDED SOME AMENDMENTS TO
TAFS TO REFLECT THAT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY BECOMING ONSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND PERSISTING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
APPROACH THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  52  78  53  81 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  54  80  56  82 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  54  78  54  80 /  10   0  10  10
MSY  57  79  59  80 /  10   0  10  10
GPT  54  78  57  78 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  52  77  52  78 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







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