Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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267
FXUS64 KLIX 241703
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1203 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE LOCALIZED BRIEF CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDING WAS VERY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH A PWAT OF
2.06 INCHES...AND A MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 879 J/KG. LOW TO MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS ALL THE
WAY UP TO 150 MB. LOCAL TECHNIQUES FOR DOWNBURST/WET-MICROBURST
POTENTIAL INDICATE MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR WELL BELOW
SEVERE GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. LOW LEVEL CAPE AND WIND PROFILE IS
ONCE AGAIN FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER JUST EAST OF FLORIDA.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST
AREA. 500 MB TEMPS ARE -7C ACROSS SOUTH LOUISIANA AND -6C ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO NORTH FLORIDA WITH
A 1MB DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT
00Z SHOWED VALUES ABV 1.8 INCHES FROM UPPER TEXAS COAST TO NORTH
FLORIDA AND VALUES LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OVER MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN TODAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST OVER
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALLOW THE DRY AIR TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST DOWN GLIDE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL INCREASE 5H TEMPS AT UP TO -5C THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPRESS A MAJORITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S DUE TO LESS CLOUDS AND INCREASED HEIGHTS. WIND FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WEAK TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH AFTERNOON...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND STALLING OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 18

AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MCB AND HUM THIS
MORNING...WITH THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING VIS ABOUT 5SM.  OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT EACH TAF SITES. EXPECT
MID LEVEL CU FIELD WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3-4 KFT. MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING WITH AN EARLIER START
NEAR THE COAST.

MEFFER

MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND
SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES
WINDS TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  72 /  30  20  20  10
BTR  93  73  93  74 /  30  20  20  10
ASD  90  72  92  75 /  30  20  30  10
MSY  89  77  90  77 /  30  20  30  10
GPT  90  74  91  76 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  72  90  73 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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