033
FXUS64 KLIX 152028
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
328 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OFFSHORE ABOUT 10 TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF THE
LOUISIANA COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR CLEAR SHOW THIS
BOUNDARY WITH AND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF
PLAQUEMINES PARISH THAT HASN/T MOVED IN SEVERAL HOURS. DRIER AIR DID
NOT MAKE IT THAT FAR SOUTH HOWEVER AND MID 70 DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN
PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY HAVE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...SEVERE THREAT IS
FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH LITTLE WIND SHEAR IN PLACE BUT SUFFICIENT DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG DOWNDRAFTS TO OCCUR.
WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ALONG THE COAST. INLAND
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE THESE EVENING AROUND SUNSET BUT OFFSHORE
ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED TODAY/S FCST
TO INCLUDE 20 POPS ALONG WITH ISOLATED STORMS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY RACES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES OF THE COUNTRY. THIS...ALONG WITH
DEWPOINTS COMING BACK UP ACROSS THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS. A SECONDARY AND STRONGER TROUGH WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL SHIFT CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST...PUTTING THE
CWA NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND THUS BEGIN ALLOWING FOR A
FEW MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR MS/LA
BORDER. THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

MEFFER

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.
KHUM...KBTR AND KMCB MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
LIGHT FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED CONVECTION
COVERAGE WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AND POSSIBLY AFFECT
KMSY...KNEW...KHDC...KASD AND KGPTA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. 18

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
COASTLINE HAS BECOME DIFFUSE AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  93  71  92 /  10  20  10  20
BTR  74  94  74  94 /  10  20  10  10
ASD  74  91  74  90 /  10  20  10  20
MSY  77  92  75  90 /  10  20  10  10
GPT  75  90  75  90 /  10  30  10  20
PQL  71  91  72  89 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$