Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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135
FXUS64 KLIX 212040
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
340 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STILL QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IS BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF. THIS WILL CAUSE ITS
FORWARD PROGRESS TO SLOW AS THIS OCCURS AND THE LOW DEEPENS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY FLOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA AS WELL AS
SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL BE AT A MINIMUM. FCST TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WHICH ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER ANYWAYS.

A MORE NORTHERLY STREAM UPPER TROUGH TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
COUNTRY THIS WEEK WILL FINALLY PUSH OUT THE CURRENT ONE TO THE EAST
AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AND HAVE BUMPED UP
TEMPS JUST A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST FOR THIS.

FOR THE TROPICS...THE FOCUS REMAINS ON AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE
INVESTIGATING AT THIS TIME. NO IMMEDIATE IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEK BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE SYSTEM/S TRACK INCREASES
QUITE A BIT BEYOND 5 DAYS. THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE
LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SPLITTING IN HALF
WITH ONE PORTION BEING PICKED UP WITH THE WEEKEND TROUGH AND ANOTHER
BEING LEFT BEHIND. THE UNCERTAINTY COMES IN WITH WHAT HAPPENS TO THE
LEFTOVER ENERGY. AT THE LEAST IT WOULD BE STUCK IN A WEAK STEERING
PATTERN REGIME IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. MAY NEED TO MONITOR
THIS NEXT WEEK.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
580 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OK TODAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO KEEP TERMINALS CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. THIS COOL DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY DURING
THE EARLY MORNING BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z MAINLY NEAR INLAND BODIES OF
WATER. IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL TO NONE. A SEABREEZE WILL MOVE THROUGH
KGPT BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z AND WILL BRING TEMPORARY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FLOW.

KEG
&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
WILL SLOW AS IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES A LOW OFF. THIS WILL CAUSE A
REINFORCEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH PUSHING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
THUS... MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE
BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE NORTHEAST FLOW TO DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO 3 FEET OR LESS DURING THIS
PERIOD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF SOUTH INTERACTS WITH A REGION OF LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  77  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  56  79  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  52  77  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  62  78  58  76 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  55  77  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  50  77  45  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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