Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 190842
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
342 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
VORTICITY SHEAR ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS RUNNING
ITS COURSE THIS MORNING WITH SOME FRONTOGENETIC PROCESSES
UNDERWAY. DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FILTER
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR A DRIER DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS SOUTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES WHERE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY BECOME ENHANCED ON LAKE BREEZE.
WILL MAINTAIN 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR THAT AREA THROUGH 00Z
BUT DRYING OUT STEADILY IN THE EVENING. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD
ALSO BE UNSEASONABLY DRIER OVER LAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONSENSUS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR
MONDAY THOUGH THEY APPEAR TO BE LESS PRONOUNCED WITH RAINFALL
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DIVERGES WITH ITS
PASSAGE. HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR MONDAY THEN MAINTAINING A DRY
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERLY WAVE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CONTINENTAL
HIGH TO BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY...BUT ONLY
WORTHY OF 20-30 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SLOW TREND TOWARDS NORMALS BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
AN EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK REMAINS OVER THE AREA...AND SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE MORE COASTAL TERMINALS
SUCH AS KHUM...KMSY...AND KGPT. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG AND LOW
CEILING FORMATION AT KMCB...KHDC...KBTR...KASD WHERE A WEAK LOW
LEVEL INVERSION MAY DEVELOP BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING.  THE INVERSION
SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 14Z...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD LINGER THROUGH AROUND 18Z AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.   AS THE
DISTURBANCE PULLS TO THE EAST AND SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN
ALOFT...THE CLOUD DECK WILL RISE ABOVE 12K FEET AND ALSO BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.  ANOTHER WEAK INVERSION MAY DEVELOP
AFTER 10Z...WHICH MAY LEAD SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION AT KMCB AND
KHUM.  AT MOST...A PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS
FOG. 32

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM TEXAS TOWARD FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND.  THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RESULTANT GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.  THE GRADIENT SHOULD MAXIMIZE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH
EASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SEAS WILL ALSO RISE TO AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET IN THE OUTER GULF WATERS WITH 2 TO 4 FEET SEAS IN THE SOUNDS
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...EXPECT TO SEE SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS POSTED FOR THE GULF COASTAL WATERS AND
POSSIBLY THE CHANDELEUR AND BRETON SOUNDS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
THIS LOW WILL PULL TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
EASTERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FEET
DURING THIS PERIOD.  A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE MARINE
ZONES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE AREA...A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS BACK TOWARD EXERCISE CAUTION
RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  70  87  69 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  87  70  88  71 /  30  10  10  10
ASD  87  71  88  69 /  30  10  10  10
MSY  87  74  89  75 /  30  10  10  10
GPT  87  73  87  71 /  30  20  10  10
PQL  88  69  88  68 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
32







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