Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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718
FXUS64 KLIX 270856
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
356 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UNUSUALLY WARM FALL WEATHER CONTINUES OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES HAVE BEEN PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WHICH IS
WHERE IT WILL BE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE
BACK ON THE DECLINE WHICH WILL LIMIT HIGHS SLIGHTLY TODAY. SO GOING
WITH A MODEL BLEND THAT IS A DEGREE OR 2 BELOW MAV. WITH THE SFC
HIGH TO THE EAST...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED TODAY
AND BRING MOISTURE LEVELS BACK UP LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S TONIGHT AND AS SUCH
THE NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
THIS IN COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING SFC
TROUGH WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OFFSHORE SOUTH OF THE
LOUISIANA COAST. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIP WATER VALUES ONLY
GETTING UP TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES AND CAPE WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG. LI/S
MIGHT REACH -2 AND COLUMN WINDS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.
SO SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AND IT COULD BE TOUGH FOR
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LIFT FROM THE FRONT ITSELF LIKELY NOT
GOING TO BE IMPRESSIVE EITHER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE
NORTH AND RACING EAST BY WEDNESDAY. SO HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST POPS
OF AROUND 30 PCT.

MODELS INDICATING A REINFORCING STRONGER FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONT AS MOISTURE DOESNT HAVE
TIME TO RETURN BEFORE THE BOUNDARY COMES THROUGH. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL
DROP TEMPS BY A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MIDWEEK. VERY PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MODIFYING AIRMASS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
TEMPS QUICKLY COMING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY RADIATION FOG WAS PRESENT AT MCB...PQL...GPT AND HUM AT 08Z.
SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE AND CREATE MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z THIS MORNING THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY. RADIATIONAL FOG WILL LIKELY FORM BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING NEAR AT MCB...ASD...HDC...GPT...HUM AND BTR. 18

&&

.MARINE...
A 1016MB HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GULF AND FLORIDA WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS A RESULT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND DISSIPATE. A SECONDARY
STRONGER SURGE THURSDAY NIGHT MAY YIELD NEAR HAZARDOUS WINDS AND
SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  84  62  81  62 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  85  63  84  64 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  84  61  82  65 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  84  67  83  67 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  82  63  81  67 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  83  58  81  63 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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