Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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068
FXUS64 KLIX 220852
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
352 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1015MB LOW BETWEEN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS RELAXED WITH A 2MB CHANGE FROM UPPER TEXAS COAST TO NORTH
FLORIDA. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
ALABAMA. BOTH FEATURES WERE CREATING A NORTH DESCENT FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW SHOWED DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM OHIO VALLEY TO MID MISSISSIPPI TO LOWER
MISSISSIPPI WITH VALUES LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...1.8 INCHES AND
HIGHER EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ALABAMA. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE DISPLACED AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS
WEST TODAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PLACE THE NORTH ZONES UNDER
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PW VALUE OF 1.9 TO 2 INCHES ACCORDING TO GFS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...HAVE MAINTAINED POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMS RAIN
CHANCES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
STRETCHED AND WEAKNESS WILL ROTATE SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. ERGO...DESCENT AIR FROM THE EDGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WILL HAMPER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS WEEK.
INCREASED HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW AFN SURFACE TEMPS TO INCREASE AS WELL
LATER THIS WEEK.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE THE EASTERN U.S LATE IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE STALLING OUT.
THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO DEEPEN BY
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. 18

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. THAT SAID THERE IS STILL A
SMALL CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS THIS MORNING. ONLY OTHER
ISSUE WOULD BE POSSIBLE CONVECTION THIS AFTN BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
FAIRLY ISLTD AND COULD BE FOCUSED OVER COASTAL MS AND THE
NORTHSHORE. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...WELL WHAT CAN WE SAY IT IS SUMMER AND OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION THINGS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE QUIET SIDE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE FCST WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW 12 KTS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. THE MDLS ONCE AGAIN ARE TRYING
TO SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWN TWRDS THE COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THAT WOULD BE THE 3 FRONT TO PUSH TWRDS THIS REGION IN
JULY...HIGHLY UNUSUAL. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  70  91  70 /  30  20  40  20
BTR  91  72  94  72 /  30  20  40  20
ASD  89  72  91  72 /  30  20  40  20
MSY  89  74  91  76 /  20  20  40  30
GPT  88  75  89  76 /  30  20  40  20
PQL  88  72  91  71 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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