Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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645
FXUS64 KLIX 262035
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
335 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
GULF AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES HAVE NOT BEEN EFFICIENT TRIGGERS
FOR CONVECTION THUSFAR TODAY BUT HAVE BEEN PROMINENTLY DEPICTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 10 PM. ONE MORE DAY OF RELATIVELY LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER AS AIR
MASS STARTS SUCCUMBING TO THE AFFECTS OF COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING...TRANSLATING TO MID 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
MARINE INFLUENCES.

.LONG TERM...
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
UNDERGOING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH TROUGHING AND IMPULSE
ROUNDING THE BASE TO ADVANCE THE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING BUT LOOK A LITTLE LIGHT ON POPS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF FRONT AND STRONG FOCUS BUT
NOCTURNAL TIMING MAY BE A HINDRANCE. WILL GO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
POPS OF 40-50 PERCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND 40 PERCENT ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS SEEM BENT ON PUSHING
THE FRONT CLEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND COASTAL WATERS BUT
FEEL THE RESISTANCE OF A WARM GULF WILL QUICKLY MODERATE THE
FRONTAL ZONE UPON ARRIVAL INTO THE NORTH GULF. THE AREA WILL
BENEFIT BY A SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY ON A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEW KHUM...KMSY...AND KNEW
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS CONVECTION MAY BREIFLY IMPACT ANY OF THESE
TERMINALS...BUT GIVEN THE LOW CHANCE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ANY MENTION
OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.  OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE
RISK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH ONLY A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD RANGING FROM 3500 TO 5000
FEET EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THERE MAY BE A WEAK
INVERSION OVER KMCB AND KHUM LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP AROUND 10Z WITH A MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS.  ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z.  BY
16Z...ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD RANGING FROM
3000 TO 5000 FEET SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
THE RISK IS STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.  3

&&

.MARINE...


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  94  74  91 /  10  10  10  40
BTR  75  94  74  92 /  10  10  10  40
ASD  76  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  40
MSY  78  93  78  91 /  10  20  10  40
GPT  78  93  78  94 /  10  20  10  50
PQL  75  92  76  90 /  20  20  10  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
32






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