Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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018
FXUS64 KLIX 160901
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
401 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE LEFT OF DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE...ASIDE FROM
SOME MODEST WIND CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY AIDING CONVECTION ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS. BROAD SADDLEPOINT ZONE HAS
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE
FRINGES OF DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST
PERSISTENT AND DEEPENING TROUGHING TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD COUPLED WITH AMPLIFICATION OF A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. THIS PLACES THE FORECAST AREA IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH OPENS A VULNERABILITY FOR SUBTLE
MESOSCALE VORTEX STRUCTURES TO TRIGGER CONVECTION EACH LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WOULD ALSO FAVOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. POPS COULD BE HIGHER FOR WEDNESDAY IF NOT LIMITED BY
PROXIMITY TO COL PROVIDING LESS THAN OPTIMAL DEEP LAYERED INFLOW.
APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALSO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DIVERGENCE TO PLACE A RELIANCE ON ANY MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
TO PERPETUATE CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE VARIABLE BY PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH CLOSE TO 90F BEFORE CLOUD COVER
THICKENS.

.LONG TERM...
A RELATIVELY EARLY ESTABLISHMENT OF PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A VULNERABILTY OF MCV FEATURES DROPPING FROM
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE
NEXT MONDAY AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INDICATED. UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA...AN UNSETTLED STRETCH OF DAYS IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION...HANDLING WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY AFTER 18Z ALL
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS FROM A SYNOPTIC PERSPECTIVE BUT
SOME ROUGHNESS FROM NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DRAPED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY A LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT...CAPTAIN LEE RECOVERY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  69  90  69 /  40  30  20  10
BTR  90  71  91  70 /  40  30  30  10
ASD  90  71  90  72 /  50  30  20  10
MSY  90  75  89  76 /  50  30  30  10
GPT  89  72  90  73 /  60  30  20  10
PQL  90  69  89  70 /  60  30  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR






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