Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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469
FXUS64 KLIX 281412
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
912 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HEADLINES AND ANY FOG
WORDING FOR THIS MORNING SINCE ALL FOG APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO OTHER UPDATES ARE
ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.  95/DM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT HAD THE BALLOON BURST OVER HARRISON COUNTY
MISSISSIPPI LESS THAN A MILE NORTH OF WEST HARRISON HIGH SCHOOL AT
AN ALTITUDE OF 106.3K FEET OR JUST OVER 20 MILES UP. AIRMASS
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.90
INCHES. SURFACE INVERSION WAS VERY SHALLOW THIS MORNING WITH
DRYING ABOUT 200 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. ANOTHER 3-4C INVERSION
AROUND 820 MB. WHILE WINDS WERE CALM AT THE SURFACE...QUICKLY
BECAME SOUTHWEST AT 2000 FEET AND REMAINED SOUTHWEST TO WEST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FLIGHT THROUGH THE TROPOPAUSE. MAX
WIND WAS 61 KNOTS AT ABOUT 44K FEET. FREEZING LEVEL THIS MORNING
WAS AT 15.4K FEET...AND -20C AT 25K FEET. 35

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASED MOISTURE IN PLACE.
COVERAGE OF DENSE APPEARED TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN IMPROVING BY 8 TO 9AM...
UNFORTUNATELY AFTER MORNING RUSH HOUR. OTHERWISE...WARM FALL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES HAVE MOVED EASTWARD AND ARE NOW IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY...JUST REACHING INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY LATE
AFTN/EVN. A FEW SHOWERS MAY FORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT WARM
LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL PRODUCE A STRONG CAP AND THERES JUST TOO
MUCH DRY AIR ALOFT AT THIS TIME FOR MUCH IF ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
TODAY. SO HAVE KEPT POPS LIMITED TO OFFSHORE WATERS WITH NUDGING
INTO THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTIES AND EXTREME NWRN ZONES IN SW
MISSISSIPPI BY TMR MORNING. MEANWHILE...FCST HIGHS ARE UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE MOST PART AND SHOULD BE AROUND YSTRDY/S
OBSERVED MAX TEMPS. SHOULDN/T HAVE TOO MUCH COOLING OVERNIGHT EITHER
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LOW TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.

LONG TERM...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY THE RELATIVELY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIP WATER VALUES NOT EVEN
REACHING 1.5 INCHES AND CAPE BARELY UP TO 500 J/KG. LI/S MIGHT REACH
-2 AND COLUMN WINDS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KNOTS. SO SEVERE
WEATHER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AND IT COULD BE TOUGH FOR EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LIFT FROM THE FRONT ITSELF LIKELY NOT
GOING TO BE IMPRESSIVE EITHER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE
NORTH AND RACING EAST BY WEDNESDAY. SO HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST POPS
OF AROUND 30 PCT. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY...AS
WILL ANY SHOWERS LEFT WILL BE AS WELL. TEMPS WILL FALL OFF ABOUT 10
DEGREES THEN TOO AS CAA OCCURS.

MODELS INDICATING A REINFORCING STRONGER FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONT AS MOISTURE DOESNT HAVE
TIME TO RETURN BEFORE THE BOUNDARY COMES THROUGH. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL
DROP TEMPS BY A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MIDWEEK. HAVE DROPPED
FCST TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS SATURDAY
PROBABLY WON/T REACH 70 AND POSSIBLY NOT EVEN MID 60S FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MODIFYING AIRMASS
BY MONDAY WITH TEMPS QUICKLY COMING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL.

MEFFER

MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY BRINGING OFFSHORE
FLOW BACK OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO
AROUND 10-15 KTS BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS A SECOND SHOT OF
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT. /CAB/

AVIATION...FOG AND LOW CIGS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND WILL CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH 14Z. VSBYS WILL RANGE ANYWHERE
FROM 3-5SM TO AS LOW AS 1/4SM OR LESS AT MOST TERMINALS. CIGS WILL
DROP POSSIBLY AS LOW AS JUST 100FT AT MOST TERMINALS AS WELL. AFTER
14Z...VSBYS AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  62  77  53 /  10  20  30  10
BTR  83  62  80  57 /  10  10  30  10
ASD  82  62  82  55 /  10  10  30  10
MSY  83  66  82  61 /  10  10  30  10
GPT  80  65  80  56 /  10  20  30  20
PQL  81  60  80  52 /  10  20  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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