Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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487
FXUS64 KLIX 302107
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
307 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. NEXT UPPER LOW IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST OVER ARIZONA.
CIRRUS IS FILTERING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT...BUT MID AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 30 NORTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND 35 TO 40 SOUTH OF THE LAKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO RETURN. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO BY SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PICKS
UP SOME ENERGY FROM THE LOW...BUT LEAVES A REMNANT OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN BREAK OUT AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST LIKELY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MOST AREAS WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ON
SUNDAY AND HIGH CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY BY
MIDDAY ON MONDAY. IF ANY THUNDER OCCURS WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT
WOULD BE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT
BUT INSTABILITY RATHER LACKING.

GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...EVEN ON FRONTAL TIMING...AND DO NOT PLAN TO ROAM FAR FROM
FORECAST TEMPERATURE NUMBERS. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

ONCE WE GET PAST MONDAY...DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. GFS LIFTS UPPER LOW OUT OF MEXICO SOMEWHAT QUICKER...ABOUT
12 HOURS...THAN DOES THE ECMWF AS BOTH WEAKEN THE UPPER SYSTEM.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD TO
FLORIDA. CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS...WHICH
IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED SOLUTION. THIS WOULD HAVE THE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA ON THE COLD AND WET SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE PULLING EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

A BLENDED SOLUTION ON TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT
WARMER ON LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THAN WHAT
THE MEX DATA INDICATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ALL WEEK
NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT EXTREMELY SO. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

NEXT 5 DAYS TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED ON THE OPEN WATERS. OPEN
WATERS STILL EXPERIENCING EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL JUST CONTINUE THE HEADLINES
THROUGH 12Z TO ELIMINATE CONFUSION. CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE
FOR HEADLINES FOR A GOOD BIT OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. A BRIEF LULL
AHEAD BETWEEN SYSTEMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE EASTERLIES
REQUIRE HEADLINES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  60  50  65 /   0   0  40  70
BTR  38  61  52  68 /   0  10  40  60
ASD  37  60  52  68 /   0   0  30  50
MSY  43  61  56  72 /   0  10  30  50
GPT  37  58  51  66 /   0   0  20  60
PQL  34  59  49  67 /   0   0  20  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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