Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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325
FXUS64 KLIX 180912
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
412 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1009MB LOW OVER NORTHERN
KENTUCKY WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH ARKANSAS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LIGHT SOUTH FLOW OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS MAINTAINED SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE PLOTS SHOWED A SWATH OF 1.8 TO 2
INCHES FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE ARKLATEX REGION TO WEST
TENNESSEE AND A BROAD SWATH OF 1.8 TO 2 INCHES FROM SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA TO NORTH FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO CENTRAL TEXAS AND
HIGHS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND OVER FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EAST
GULF. 18


&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TO NORTH ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOISTURE AXIS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
WILL SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...EAST TO WEST WITH THE
NORTHERN ZONES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. WITH SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 90F
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND THIS APPROACHING WAVE...EXPECT HIGH
END SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EAST GULF AND FLORIDA WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND WEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST BY TUESDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
RELATIVE DRY ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE ACROSS THE EAST GULF AND THIS
WILL SUPPRESS A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY. ERGO...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPS. 18


.LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST GULF AND FLORIDA WILL
EXPAND NORTHWEST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND
BECOME AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER ARKANSAS...MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA BY THURSDAY. EURO AND GFS SHOW SLIGHT INCREASE IN
HEIGHTS UP TO 5950M FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. GFS HAS 5H TEMPS
AROUND -5C THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHILE EURO REMAINS AROUND -6. IN
ADDITION...GFS HAS LOWERED THEIR PW VALUES TO 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LAYER DRYING. A GENERAL
DESCENT WILL SUPPRESS MOST DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AND INTENSE
SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW AREAS MAY SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED MAY EXCEED 105 IN SOME SPOTS
EACH AFTERNOON. HEAT ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED FOR PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS WEEK...WILL MONITOR. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER THE MID SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PLACING THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES BY SUNDAY ACCORDING TO GFS. LOOK FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND...MORE COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MOST IMPACTS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. HUM AND THE NEW ORLEANS
TERMINALS ARE QUESTIONABLE IN TERMS OF BEING IMPACTED BY STORMS.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS AROUND STORMS. GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. MOST STORMS WILL NOT LAST MUCH MORE THAN AN HOUR
AND IMPACTS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 30 MINUTES OR LESS. EXPECT MOST
CONVECTION TO DIE OUT BY 01Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHICH IS KEEPING WINDS IN A STEADY SW DIRECTION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO RELAX AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. SEAS
WILL RESPOND TO THIS WIND REDUCTION AND FALL TO 2 FEET OR LESS
AREAWIDE.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  74  93  74 /  50  40  20  10
BTR  94  75  94  75 /  50  40  20  10
ASD  92  77  92  76 /  40  40  20  10
MSY  92  77  93  77 /  30  30  20  10
GPT  90  78  90  78 /  40  40  20  10
PQL  90  76  90  76 /  40  40  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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