Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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774
FXUS64 KLIX 290846
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
346 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COAST AND ALONG THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DRIER AIR
HAS BEGUN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. YOU SHOULD
FEEL A DIFFERENCE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS THIS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WE
SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY AND TOMORROW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PW VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 1.00 TO 1.25
INCH RANGE BY TOMORROW AND EXPECT TO SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S TONIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE PLEASANT AS WELL. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
THE MOISTURE WILL RETURN HOWEVER BY THURSDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST A
VORT MAX AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD SHOT OF
RAINFALL INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS STILL
SHOW THE MAIN LOW LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN AND LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
LACK OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVER THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY...STORM MOTIONS WILL TEND TO BE FAIRLY
SLOW AT 5 MPH OR LESS. IN ADDITION...A DEEP ONSHORE FLOW REGIME
WILL PUMP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...PUSHING PW VALUES UP
TO 2 INCHES OR HIGHER ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL
BE A STREET FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY OF THE CELLS THAT COME THROUGH.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF MOST TERMINALS AS OF 07Z.
THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE KHUM WHERE A NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT IS JUST STARTING TO KICK IN. NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR KHUM FOR TSRA IN
THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS A BAND OF BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR FL040 IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS INDICATE THIS MOISTURE
COULD HANG AROUND AT THE NEW ORLEANS TERMINALS...KNEW AND KMSY...AS
WELL AS KHUM THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. EXPECT THAT
KNEW WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS SHOULD EASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 35

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE TIDAL LAKES AND SOUNDS AS OF 07Z AND IS
MOVING INTO THE OPEN WATERS OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AT BOOTHVILLE AND SOUTHWEST PASS. WHILE WINDS
BRIEFLY GO ABOVE 15 KNOTS...THEY APPEAR TO DROP OFF BELOW 15 KNOTS
PRETTY QUICK...AND WILL ALLOW EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES TO EXPIRE
AT 11Z. ONCE WINDS RELAX LATER TODAY...DO NOT SEE WINDS MUCH
ABOVE 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  65  88  66 /  10  10  10  30
BTR  92  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  20
ASD  91  67  90  70 /  10   0  10  10
MSY  90  75  90  75 /  10   0  10  10
GPT  93  68  91  70 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  90  66  88  67 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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