Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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154
FXUS64 KLIX 192024
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
324 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING SHOWN ON RADAR. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS VERY FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LARGE CU
FIELD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF LOUISIANA. EXPECT HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH VERY LITTLE
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. NOT MUCH CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND BATON ROUGE AND MCCOMB TONIGHT. LOOKING
AT THE SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE THE T/TD SPREAD MAY BE
LARGE ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TONIGHT FOR
ANY FORECAST UPDATES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A VERY NICE EASTER SUNDAY
FOR THE AREA WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
AND TRENDS WITH THIS FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THERE ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES TO JUSTIFY
MAKING MAJOR CHANGES. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME
ON TUESDAY WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CARRY LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY. NOT MUCH MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES
AS THIS FRONT WILL BE WEAK AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT
ALL TAF SITE. SOME GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT SOME PATCHY FOG
AT A FEW SITES..ESPECIALLY KMCB AND KBTR. LOOKING AT THE SOUNDINGS
OVERNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE THE T/TD SPREAD MIGHT BE WIDE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT FOG. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR 0Z AND 6Z TAF ISSUANCES. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AROUND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UP UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT EXPECT PRETTY BENIGN CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  80  56  80 /   0  10  10  20
BTR  56  82  58  81 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  54  82  57  80 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  59  80  60  80 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  56  80  58  78 /   0  10  10  10
PQL  52  80  54  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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