Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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741
FXUS64 KLIX 232047
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
347 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
BENIGN PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALS ARE FINALLY ESTABLISHING LAKE AND SEA
BREEZE REGIME FOR SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUD COVER TAHT WILL
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET TODAY. A REPEAT SCENARIO FOR THURSDAY AFTER
SOME PATCHY LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG BURNS OFF BY MID-MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
STEADY STATE ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRIEFLY BECOME DISRUPTED ON FRIDAY
AS THE LOWER END OF A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
WHILE RAIN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK GREAT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
SOME CONVERGENT BOUNDARY GENERATED SHOWERS DUE TO INTERATIONS WITH
LAKE AND SEA BREEZES. TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE APRIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS WILL THEN
SHIFT TO MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
RATHER LARGE AND STRONG CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES
WITH DEEP FETCHED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THES
SCENARIO SHOULD FEATURE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTH BUT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT EXTENDS DOWN TO THE
GULF COAST AREAS...THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
SQUALL LINE AND DISCRETE BOWING SEGMENTS MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
THE BULK OF THE WEATHER IS INDICATED TO DEPART TUESDAY MORNING BUT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE COLDEST ADVECTION DOES NOT FULLY SWING
THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IF ECMWF
VERIFIES...NOT QUITE AS COLD BUT STILL COLD IF THE GFS IS CORRECT.
IT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A RECORD FOR LOWEST MAX DAILY TEMPERATURE
IF ALL PANS OUT AND TEMPS ONLY REACH MID 60S. RECORD LOWS DURING
THAT PERIOD ARE AROUND 40 AT KBTR AND UPPER 40S IN NEW ORLEANS
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FOG MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO 5-6SM BR BEFORE DAYBREAK
MAINLY DUE TO SHALLOW GROUND AND RADIATIONAL FOG BUT SHOULD BURN
OFF BY 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE A TIGHTENING OF THE ONSHORE WIND GRADIENT SUNDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE SEAS TO RESPOND IN KIND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS RELAX A BIT ON TUESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE NORTH GULF NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             ASSESSING SEVERE WX POTENTIAL FOR MON/TUE

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
       VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
      AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
      SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  83  62  83 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  60  84  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  60  81  63  80 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  64  82  66  82 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  58  78  65  79 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  57  79  62  80 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR





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