Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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903
FXUS64 KLIX 292120
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
420 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A MORE ACTIVE RADAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND EXPECT THIS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK LOW WELL SOUTH
IN SOUTHERN TEXAS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE WELL OVER
2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO 100
PERCENT TOMORROW ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY
AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. OTHER AREAS WILL BE IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY TOMORROW. IT LOOKS AS THE MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ELONGATE OVER THE AREA.
THE STORM MOTION SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH WHERE CONVECTION SHOULD NOT
SIT OVER AN AREA...HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RAINFALL AS THERE STILL CAN BE SOME TRAINING
OVER THE SAME AREAS. WITH ALL OF THIS MOISTURE AROUND AND WITH THE
REPORTS THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED TODAY EXPECT THESE STORMS TOMORROW
TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS. AGAIN WE WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO
WATCH THE FLOODING POTENTIAL TOMORROW. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST OVER THE LONG RANGE. WILL STICK
CLOSE TO LAST ISSUANCE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE NEXT WEEK AS
THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH RACES NORTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
BACK IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. MODELS
STILL SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AS A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO MEXICO GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR ALTHOUGH NO TROPICAL THREAT
EXISTS AT THIS TIME. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
DESPITE ALL THE CONVECTION CLOUD BASES HAVE MAINLY BEEN
ABV 3K FT. NOW WHEN CONVECTION MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS STATUS DROPS
TO MVFR AND IFR WITH BOTH VIBYS AND CIGS FALLING BUT BOTH IMPROVE
QUICKLY EVEN IN LIGHT RAIN. OVERNIGHT RAIN COULD BE AN ISSUE BUT
LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PUSH WINDS INTO THE EXERCISE
CAUTION RANGE TONIGHT. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INLAND THE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY. WITH THE RIDGE STILL IN
PLACE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE THE RULE FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 5
FEET THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  87  74  89 /  60 100  50  50
BTR  75  87  75  91 /  70 100  50  50
ASD  76  89  75  91 /  50  70  50  40
MSY  79  90  78  91 /  70  80  50  40
GPT  78  89  77  90 /  50  60  40  40
PQL  77  90  75  90 /  50  60  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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