Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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851
FXUS64 KLIX 272049
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
349 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GORGEOUS WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS
WEEKEND AS COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING
ON LOCATION...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S
NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST. THINK GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO COOL WITH
REGARDS TO HIGHS TOMORROW. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE CEASED
OR AT LEAST WEAKENED SIGNIFICANT WITH WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE EASTERLY. ADD IN FULL SUNSHINE WITH A RISING SUN ANGLE...AND
THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK INSTEAD OF
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THUS AM
CARRYING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WITH FORECAST
AFTERNOON TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND WARMING TREND BEGINS
AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...RISING ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STILL
LOOKS TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST AS IT LOSES ITS UPPER
LEVEL PUSH AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THE STALLING BOUNDARY
COULD STILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.

THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO
INDICATE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
THIS SYSTEM AS EITHER SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. THIS RESULTS IN
SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT IT IS MORE
LIKELY THAT ONE OF THESE TWO DAYS WILL SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE OTHER WILL SEE ONLY ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE REFINING THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS THE SITUATION BECOMES CLEARER.

BEYOND MIDWEEK...ANOTHER FRONT COULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
STRONG IT WILL BE BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THROUGH 0Z AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KNEW WHERE WINDS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST. WINDS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
REMAIN SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  41  71  48  76 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  45  74  53  79 /   0   0  10   0
ASD  41  72  48  75 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  49  72  56  77 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  45  68  51  72 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  40  70  44  72 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...13/MH
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM



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