Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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265
FXUS64 KLIX 292127
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
427 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG THE CAROLINAS COAST WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST GULF. IN
ADDITION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM WISCONSIN TO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM TEXAS COAST/CENTRAL GULF
COAST TO MICHIGAN. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORT WAVE FROM
WISCONSIN TO EASTERN KANSAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON A PLANER
VIEW INDICATION A SURGE AHEAD OR EAST OF THE SHORT WAVE WITH THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...AND THIS CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

THE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST. WITH THE SHORT WAVE PUSHING EAST...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. IN ADDITION...5H
TEMP LOWER TO -17C ACROSS MISSISSIPPI COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ERODE
THE CAP IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY WITH MODEST CAPE
VALUES AROUND AND ABOVE -20C WILL LEAD A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR NORTH WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE AIRMASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MAY SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH ZONES ON TUESDAY.

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER TEXAS AND ADJACENT MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SPLIT WITH EURO
GOING WET AND GFS DRY. AM CONTINUING TO BLEND THE MODELS WITH A
SLIGHT LEAN TO GFS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN
PLAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MODELS KEEP SOME RAIN AROUND IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN WITHOUT ANY COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE WESTERLIES AND UPPER JETSTREAM WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE
UPPER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO DRIVE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THE FORCING WILL NOT BE THAT
STRONG AND MOISTURE CONTENT NOT THAT HIGH...SO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCE LOOKING TO
BE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

18

&&

AVIATION...

CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE FOG TOWARD MONDAY MORNING...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL. EXPECT CEILINGS IF ANY AROUND
SUNRISE WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING.

&&

MARINE...

NO REAL MARINE ISSUES TO SPEAK OF AND DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
PERIODS OF WINDS GREATER THAN 15 KNOTS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TAP FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WITH NO STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  59  80  57  80 /  10  30  10  10
BTR  60  83  60  83 /  10  20  10  10
ASD  58  81  58  81 /  10  20  10  10
MSY  64  81  63  80 /   0  20  10  10
GPT  60  78  59  78 /  10  40  10  10
PQL  57  80  57  80 /  10  40  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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