Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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499
FXUS64 KLIX 172055
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
355 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US HAS DUG
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SERN US TODAY WHICH HAS PUSHED DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST. SUBSEQUENTLY...MUCH QUIETER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS JUST A HANDFUL OF
SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND ABOUT THE SAME ON THE SEA BREEZE
SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OVERALL CHANGE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOUR WITH INLAND CONVECTION DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ACTIVE BUT IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND ADJACENT LA PARISHES. THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY AND
HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

UPPER TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL LIFT FURTHER AWAY GOING
INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE THAT GOT PUSHED INTO THE
GULF...BACK INTO THE AREA. SO POPS WILL BE COMING BACK UP TO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS SLIGHT
UPPER RIDGING TRANSLATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS WILL
SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION AND HAVE LIMITED CONVECTION FRIDAY WITH
ONLY COASTAL AREAS SEEING ANY STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF STILL SHOWING THE NEXT SOMEWHAT DECENT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE NEXT MONDAY AS A TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. TEMPS MAY COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES AND DEWPOINTS WILL FALL AS
WELL.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
CONVECTION OVER MARINE AREAS HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY LESS TODAY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CELLS CURRENTLY
DETECTED. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES BY THE AREA. AFTER
TOMORROW...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE OPEN COASTAL WATERS
TOMORROW NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS. LIKELY TO BE A BIT OF SWELL TO ENHANCE WAVE HEIGHTS A FOOT OR
SO OVER THE WEEKEND...AND MAY RAISE TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST A
BIT. WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT BY LATE ON SUNDAY. 35

&&

.AVIATION...
LEADING EDGE OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS EXTENDS FROM KHZR TO KASD AND
IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 KNOTS. JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...THERE ARE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WITH VFR TO THE NORTH.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN RATHER LIMITED...CURRENTLY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
NEW ORLEANS TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH THE IDEA OF
REMOVING MENTION OF VICINITY PRECIP IF NO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPS. ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE RIDING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE TO OUR
WEST WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID-MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  88  66  87 /  10  20  10  20
BTR  72  86  69  88 /  10  40  10  20
ASD  71  86  68  88 /  10  30  10  20
MSY  75  85  72  87 /  10  30  20  20
GPT  73  86  70  87 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  70  88  67  88 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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