Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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491
FXUS64 KLIX 310844
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
344 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAIN PORTION OF UPPER TROF EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. BEST LIFT HAS TRANSLATED NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOTED ON KLIX RADAR AT 3
AM. STILL QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA...AND SOME LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS
LOWER PLAQUEMINES PARISH. THE RAIN THAT FELL ON SATURDAY ALSO
PULLED SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...AS DEW POINTS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE ARE IN THE LOWER 70S INSTEAD OF THE
MID AND UPPER 70S. MOST OF THE AREA HAS HAD TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE 70 TO 75 RANGE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST
TODAY...BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD
MEAN QUITE A BIT LESS CONVECTION TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...STILL NOT MUCH MORE THAN 30-40
PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ALTHOUGH A FEW PLACES THAT SEE CONVECTION AS EARLY AS 18Z MIGHT
NOT QUITE MAKE FORECAST LEVELS. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

STILL SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY...WHERE GFS/NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA...AND ECMWF KEEPS RIDGE BODILY IN PLACE.
CURRENT FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD GFS AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO
CHANGE AT THIS POINT. IF ECMWF VERIFIES...WEDNESDAY WOULD END UP
BEING DRY. MAIN PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED IS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES WITH EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WOULD BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING EACH AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING IN A FEW SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW FASTER FLOW AND HIGHER AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY...A SIGN THAT A CHANGE IN SEASONS
IS NOT ALL THAT FAR AWAY AS WE ENTER SEPTEMBER. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
THROUGH ABOUT 14Z TODAY...AND BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z ON MONDAY WHEN
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS WILL BRING TEMPO MVFR AT A
COUPLE AIRPORTS...WITH SOME LIFR CONTINUING AT KMCB EARLY THIS
MORNING. REGARDING SHRA/TSRA...MUCH LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TODAY...15 TO 25 PERCENT...SO WILL NOT CARRY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

TO PUT THINGS SIMPLY...THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO THE TYPICAL BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE COMPLICATION WITH REGARDS TO
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST
FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG A
SLIGHT INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS A NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF...AND THAT AREA OF STRONGER WINDS ALONG
WITH A SWELL TRAIN SHOULD TRAVERSE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LULL IN STRONGER WINDS AND
SOMEWHAT LOWER SEAS EARLY TODAY SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE
DAY AND EVENING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
OVER THE WESTERN WATERS AND AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER EASTERN WATERS
TONIGHT. SEAS SHOULD PEAK AT 5 TO 6 FEET OVER WESTERN WATERS AND 4
TO 5 FEET OVER EASTERN WATERS. /SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION/
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEST OF SOUTHWEST PASS.

AS THE TROPICAL WAVE AND INVERTED TROUGH MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE
AREA...SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY MIDDAY
ON MONDAY...AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY...THEN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD EASE
SLOWLY BACK TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. SPOT FORECAST NEAR MOUTH OF MS RIVER.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  73  91  74 /  20  10  30  20
BTR  92  74  91  75 /  20  10  40  20
ASD  91  74  91  75 /  20  10  30  20
MSY  91  78  91  79 /  20  10  40  20
GPT  90  75  90  77 /  20  10  30  20
PQL  91  74  90  74 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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