Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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953
FXUS64 KLIX 240538
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1238 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS FROM 030-050 WERE OBSERVED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AND OFFSHORE IN THE GULF AS OF 0515Z.
THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA AIRPORTS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DRY AIR MIXES OUT THE CLOUDS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY CIGS SHOULD BE BRIEF SO HAVE ONLY
CARRIED SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE TAFS. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES GO FOR THE
SHORT TERM...NOT EXPECTING ANY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
TIME. THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN
NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SPREADS...WITH LOWS JUST BELOW NORMAL
AND HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL
TREND/BLEND TOWARD THE COOLER LOWS AND WARMER HIGHS THROUGH
THURSDAY. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THIS WEEKEND AS THE NEXT GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN THE GFS AND
ECMWF DIFFER IN STRENGTH...PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS NEXT
FEATURE FOR THIS WEEKEND. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR THE
WEEKEND AS BOTH SOLUTIONS STILL FAVOR A WET WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW CYCLES. PERSISTENT
EAST WINDS COULD ENHANCE TIDES ON EAST FACING SHORELINES TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. 13/MH

AVIATION...
DRY AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. A SCATTERED DECK 035-050 MAY DEVELOP IN COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST LA AND POSSIBLY KMSY/KNEW/KHUM BETWEEN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY BETWEEN 9 AND 13 KNOTS AT KMSY
AND KNEW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 18

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH RIDGE AXIS
BUILDING SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST GULF. A WEAK BROAD
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL GULF
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO FEATURES...A PRESSURE DIFFERENCE
OF 4 MB MAY EXIST ACROSS EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THE MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE A MODERATE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ON OPEN WATERS
AND EAST OF THE RIVER. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUNDS...THEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD FROM LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE 7 TO 8 FEET RANGE OVER SOME OF THE
EASTERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN MOSTLY IN THE
5 TO 7 FEET RANGE FROM LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

18

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  87  64  87 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  64  88  65  87 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  64  87  68  87 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  70  86  72  87 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  67  86  69  86 /   0  10  10  10
PQL  65  87  67  86 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







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