Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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313
FXUS64 KLIX 230123
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
823 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN THIS EVENING HAVE SOME
SORT OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THEM AT ALL LEVELS. THESE NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE BRINGING IN DRIER AIR THAT IS RESULTING IN LOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO
FALLING THIS EVENING WITH THE DEWPOINT AT MSY FALLING 5 DEGREES IN
THE LAST TWO HOURS TO 59. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY STABLE OVERALL
WITH MLCAPES LESS THAN 200 J/KG. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE STATED...IT
WOULD SEEM AUTUMN/S ARRIVAL IS ON CUE IN ABOUT AN HOUR.

00Z BALLOON INFO: THERE WERE NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS
EVENING. THE FLIGHT LASTED 108 MINUTES WITH THE BALLOON BURSTING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF LAKE BORGNE AT A HEIGHT OF 19.7 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND 29.4 MILES DOWNRANGE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...

AN AUTUMN LIKE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BY THE EVENING HOURS TODAY. DRY AND FALL-
LIKE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 TO 7
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND EVENTUALLY RETREAT NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE WEEKEND. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
ALLOW FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF COAST. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS AS THE EURO HAS A SURFACE LOW RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONT AND EVENTUALLY MARCHING INLAND...FOLLOWING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER NORTHWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MORE OPEN
WAVE WITH MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNING NORTHWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-10.

AVIATION...
..18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AFFECTING
GPT...ASD...NEW...MSY AND HUM. HAVE UPDATED GPT AND NEW FOR THIS
ONGOING TREND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATED MSY AND
HUM TO INCLUDE TEMPO TSRA THROUGH 20Z. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VSBYS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO
TONIGHT AND THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. 18

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  85  61  86 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  60  85  62  88 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  62  86  64  86 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  69  84  69  86 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  64  85  66  85 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  60  85  64  85 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE
     ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE
     ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







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