Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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623
FXUS64 KLIX 172219
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
419 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES TAKE A
DIVE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHSHORE AND
NEAR FREEZING IN SOUTH OF THE LAKE. FREEZE WARNINGS AND HARD
FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE MISSISSIPPI COAST IS EXCLUDED AS THE WINDS SHOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 DEGREES. WILL HAVE TO
LOOK AGAIN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT TO SEE IF ANY MORE FREEZE HEADLINES
WILL BE REQUIRED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT COLD DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
UNTIL THIS WEEKEND. 13/MH

MAIN CONCERN IN EXTENDED PERIOD IS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA LATE THIS
WEEK AND WINDS WILL BECOME FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE WEST. BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS 17/12Z GFS AND EURO HAVE THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA AT THAT TIME. MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
AWARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT AT THIS TIME NOTHING BEING
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SPC OUTLOOKS. THE FRONT PASSES OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...
BUT STALLS OUT AND IS OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS IN THE EURO AND OVER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI IN THE GFS. SO AT
THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH 30 TO 40
POPS ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE SHOWING SOME DRYING ON
MONDAY.

ANSORGE

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS WERE THINNING STEADILY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WITH MOST TAF LOCATIONS GOING TO VFR CAVU THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE LLWS CONDITIONS AT A FEW LOCATIONS SHOULD
ABATE BY 23Z AS COLD AIR ADVECTION NEUTRALIZES. VFR CAVU
CONDITIONS ALL TAF LOCATIONS AFTER 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
THIS MORNING. FREQUENT STRONGER GUSTS TO GALE CAN BE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PROTECTED WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON TUESDAY WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  26  44  26  56 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  26  47  26  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  28  47  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  34  48  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  30  47  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  29  47  24  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
     UPPER TERREBONNE.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...IBERVILLE...ORLEANS...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER
     JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
     BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

     HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA...POINTE
     COUPEE...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST. HELENA...ST.
     TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE
     ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AMITE...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE
     ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







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