Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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002
FXUS64 KLIX 112102
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
402 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND ARE ROUGHLY STATIONARY AT
THIS TIME. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO TIME THE PERIODS
OF HEAVIER RAIN AS WELL AS GETTING THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RIGHT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER SEVERAL FAST
MOVING IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA...EACH BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. FIRST ONE LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD. EXPECT BEST COVERAGE TO
BE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME
HEATING. AM CARRYING LIKELY POPS WITH AREA AVERAGE QPF OF ONE HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS...THOUGH SOME STREET FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
UNDER SOME OF THE MORE EFFICIENT STORMS.

HEAVIEST RAIN CURRENTLY LOOKS TO FALL ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER IMPULSE
BRINGS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEST
INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD
OCCUR. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM HPC IS AROUND 2 INCHES FOR THE
DAY...AND THIS IS CLOSE TO WHAT I AM CARRYING IN OUR OWN FORECAST.
HPC ALSO INDICATING A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PARISHES AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI WITH A
SLIGHT RISK FOR AREAS THAT ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM PIERRE PART TO SLIDELL TO SAUCIER. WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE FOR A 6 HOUR
PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE TIME
BEING...BUT WILL BE MONITORING RAINFALL TOTALS CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY AT SOME
POINT.

HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS STAY IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING VORT MAXES ROTATE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK FORCING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. THIS
FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
WILL LIKELY ONLY RESULT IN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE THE RULE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOST AIRPORTS SHOULD HAVE PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE SOME LOW CIGS REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
WINDS BRING AN INCREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE MOST LIKELY TAF
AIRPORT TO HAVE LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA OR VCTS THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IS KHUM...BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL FOR KMSY AND
KBTR. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANYTHING MORE THAN VCSH IN THE FIRST 12
HOURS OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED. THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WILL HAVE TO
ADDRESS MORE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST...WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
EAST OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO RETURN BACK TO AN ONSHORE
DIRECTION. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF AND RESULT IN MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK AND COULD RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TIDES DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...METS TO AVONDALE AND NEW ORLEANS COMMAND CENTER
ACTIVATION...YES.
ACTIVITIES...FRENCH QUARTER FEST PUBLIC SAFETY SUPPORT
             GRAND PRIX OF LOUISIANA PUBLIC SAFETY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  63  77  67  77 /  30  70  70  80
BTR  65  78  68  79 /  40  80  60  70
ASD  67  78  69  78 /  30  70  60  70
MSY  67  79  71  80 /  30  70  60  70
GPT  67  77  71  77 /  30  70  60  70
PQL  66  78  70  78 /  30  70  60  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22/TD
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM



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