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451
FXUS64 KLIX 122021
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
321 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IOWA WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN IL/IN/OH AND COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST KS.

LOCALLY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING NEAR 90 OR JUST ABOVE DEGREES MOST SITES AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE 70S. A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS DEEP RIDGING REMAINS IN
PLACE. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THOUGH ONE OR TWO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP...PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 70S. THIS WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE...WHICH IS BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. NONETHELESS IT IS A BIT EARLIER IN THE
SEASON THAN WHEN WE USUALLY START TO SEE THESE HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES...SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD TAKE PROPER
PRECAUTIONS TO STAY HYDRATED.

.LONG TERM...
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WHICH WILL HELP BREAK DOWN THE DEEP RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN
DOMINATING THE LOCAL WEATHER. AS THIS HAPPENS...A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. HAVE
BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
TIMING SEEMS TO HAVE SPED UP A BIT. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS ON
FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER TIMING WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES. SEVERE WEATHER DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT.
HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BIGGEST
THREATS WOULD BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...ONCE
AGAIN RESULTING IN WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER THAN
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.

BY LATE SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL TRY TO FORCE A FRONT
INTO THE AREA. THIS ONE WON`T HAVE QUITE AS MUCH SUCCESS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AS FRIDAY/S SYSTEM. WITH A STALLED OR WASHED OUT
FRONT IN THE AREA...WILL CARRY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS EACH
AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 03Z THURSDAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO LIGHT FOG
IMPACTING A FEW OF THE TERMINALS THURSDAY MORNING 08Z THROUGH 13Z.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR AND AN ABSENCE OF SHRA/TSRA CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT A BIT OVER THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RISING TO
NEAR 15 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF SOUTHWEST PASS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO RETURN ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  93  72  95  73 /  10   0  10  30
BTR  94  74  95  75 /  10   0  10  20
ASD  92  73  93  75 /  10   0  10  30
MSY  92  76  93  77 /  10   0  10  20
GPT  92  76  93  76 /  10   0  10  30
PQL  94  72  94  73 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18
MARINE...22/TD
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM