Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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958
FXUS64 KLIX 150911
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
411 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WANED THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COASTLINE WHERE JUST A FEW HOURS AGO THERE WAS GOOD
COVERAGE. TO THE NORTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A LINE STRETCHING
FROM JACKSON TO MONROE TO JUST NORTH OF NATCHITOCHES. THIS LINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND SHOULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF OUR AREA BY AROUND 6AM. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AS THE MORNING GOES ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING LIKELY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.

LOOKING AT THE SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING PW VALUES INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PEAKING AT
2.2-2.3 INCHES BY THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CAPE
VALUES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH SHEAR VALUES ON THE LOW
SIDE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO EVEN
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BIGGEST ISSUE
BEING THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. AT THIS TIME...
EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ON THE STRONG SIDE.

TOMORROW BECOMES AN INTERESTING FORECAST DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
LOCATION OF WHERE THE FRONT STALLS. AT THIS POINT...MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY EVEN THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA.
WENT WITH LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TOMORROW
AS THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND
JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE SOUTHERN HALF IN THE EVENT THE FRONT
DOES NOT MAKE IT COMPLETELY THROUGH. FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT AS NICE AS YOU ARE LIKELY TO SEE
IN SOUTH LOUISIANA IN MID JULY AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
AREA. WILL BE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER BOUT WITH SOME
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES
ARE ALSO ELEVATED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED MOISTURE TO SETTLE IN AGAIN OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING AT KMCB
AND KHUM...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MOST TERMINALS
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MESOSCALE MODELING
INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE THREAT BEGINS INCREASING AROUND 15Z ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AND SPREADS SOUTHWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF VCTS/VCSH DURING
THE MORNING AND A 4 HOUR TEMPO WINDOW OF TSRA AT EACH TERMINAL. MAY
FIDDLE WITH THE TIMES ON THE TEMPO GROUPS IF MESOSCALE MODELING
REMAINS CONSISTENT ON TIMING. WILL LIKELY MAKE SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE. FOR
NOW...WILL END MENTION OF CONVECTION AROUND 02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TODAY. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS FROM AROUND 1 FOOT TO
CLOSER TO 2-3 FEET IN SOME AREAS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE SOUNDS BUT STALL BEFORE
MAKING IT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS MAY APPROACH EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BUT
SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW 15 KNOTS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  64  87  63 /  70  30  10  10
BTR  91  68  90  67 /  70  30  10  10
ASD  90  68  88  67 /  70  40  20  10
MSY  90  73  89  72 /  70  40  20  10
GPT  89  70  88  67 /  70  40  20  10
PQL  89  69  88  64 /  70  40  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/DSS...35
REST OF DISCUSSION...98/SO






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