Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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216
FXUS64 KLIX 190931
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AIR...CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE THIS
MORNING. AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES...TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
IN THE MID 30S AT 2 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE STILL LOOKS TO DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO NOT MUCH
MORE THAN A FEW OFFSHORE SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES OVERACHIEVED YESTERDAY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
TOUCHING THE 70 DEGREE MARK. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AT
850 MB AND LOWER THIS MORNING...OTHER THAN STARTING FROM A LOWER
BASE. WILL TREND TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS
TODAY. BEYOND TODAY...NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH A BLEND...TRENDING TOWARD THE
WARMER HIGHS WHERE THERE IS A DIFFERENCE. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON FORECAST
SCENARIO IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. SOME PHASING OF NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS IN A VERY POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE GULF COAST DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A COLD RAIN
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND HAVE RAISED POPS A LITTLE MORE. MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO PUT THEM INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WILL GO WITH LIKELY FOR
NOW. ANY THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA...AS FREEZING LEVEL AT MCCOMB ONLY EXPECTED TO
FALL TO ABOUT 9000 FEET. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
THOSE TWO DAYS. WILL GO WITH BLENDED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE OVER THE
WEEKEND. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

VERY PATCHY AND MOSTLY LIGHT RADIATION FOG MAY IMPACT A COUPLE OF
THE TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED. AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND PATCHY MODERATE FOG COULD
IMPACT A GREATER NUMBER OF AIRPORTS DURING THE 06Z-14Z PERIOD
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF
IFR CATEGORY VSBYS FOR A COUPLE HOURS. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE SUBSIDED NICELY EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVED RIGHT OVER THE
ENTIRE NORTH GULF COAST. MOST OF THE MARINE OBSERVATIONS RANGED FROM
NEAR CALM UP TO AROUND 7 KNOTS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS MOSTLY 1 FOOT OR
LESS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...SO WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ON
THE LOW SIDE MAKING FOR IDEAL BOATING CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE...THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY...AND THE LOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA...AND
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS /SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA/ OVER THE WESTERN WATERS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN WATERS. THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT HIGHER WITH WINDS...AND A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
SUGGESTS SUSTAINED 25 TO 30 KNOTS SPEEDS WITH SOME GUSTS OVER GALE
FORCE SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE 00Z GFS IS
STRONGEST INDICATING WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE 00Z ECMWF IS ALSO
SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED GALES FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM FRIDAY EVEN
THOUGH THE MODEL WINDS DO NOT GO OVER 30 KNOTS. IF THESE MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE...THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE THE SUSTAINED
GALE FORCE WINDS.

SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD AND GONE FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE WNAWAVE 10 MODEL...WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED IN
THE OPEN GULF WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 6 TO 9 FEET THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY EASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW CROSSES THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND REFORMS/STRENGTHENS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  41  69  45 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  69  43  70  48 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  67  42  69  47 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  68  48  69  48 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  66  45  67  48 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  67  43  69  45 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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