Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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785
FXUS64 KLIX 222114
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
414 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. SURFACE/LOW LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE ALSO COVERED THE GULF COAST REGION. CONVECTION HAS
REMAINED MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED THAN YESTERDAY...HOWEVER VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHAT MAY END UP BEING THE
HOTTEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. AFTER
SEEING SO LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
THAT WE WILL SEE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
BEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH WITH 500
MB HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH THE 12Z RUNS TODAY...SO
HAVE TRENDED THE HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO COOLER OVERALL. THE 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY PEAK IN THE 28 TO 29C RANGE
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES PEAKING 20 TO 21C ON SATURDAY AND 21 TO
22C ON SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 90S WITH MID TO
UPPER 90S ON SUNDAY. A FEW OF THE HOTTER LOCATIONS COULD STILL
REACH 100 ON SUNDAY. REGARDING HEAT INDICES...DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO AROUND 70 OR IN THE LOWER 70S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS INLAND FROM THE COAST...SO MOST OF THE HEAT INDICES ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE ON SATURDAY...AND
104 TO 110 ON SUNDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME SINCE THE CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...

THE EAST COAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS NORTHWEST THEN NORTH
AND KEEP ANY POTENTIAL STORM WELL EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
WILL ALSO ACT TO BRING A WEAK...BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION...PASSING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
GENERALLY NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO LIKELY SEND
SOME SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL INTERACT
WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
DURING THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY PERIODS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHER POP STARTING IN THE EAST ON
MONDAY THEN PEAKING IN THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD BECOME A CONCERN IN THIS PATTERN. IN
ADDITION...BANDING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK...MAINLY WITH REGARDS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE 12Z
GFS IS FASTER AND ERODES THE RIDGE FASTER OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS ENERGY BACK
WEST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. HAVE GENERALLY BLENDED THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WHICH INDICATES SOME DRIER AIR OVER NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ALL AREAS RETURN A MORE SEASONAL
PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK. 22/TD


&&

.AVIATION...

GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINALS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES RATHER SMALL...BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF VCTS
THIS AFTERNOON AT KMCB AND KGPT...WHERE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE IN
PUBLIC FORECAST. KBTR HAD SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN BR/HZ EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND SEE NO REASON THIS SHOULD BE DIFFERENT TOMORROW
MORNING. WILL CARRY 5SM IN BR FOR KBTR 06Z-14Z. 35

&&

.MARINE...

A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SEABREEZE/LANDBREEZE CYCLE WILL
DOMINATE...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS IN PLACE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND
ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THE WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION. EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 3 TO 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  97  73  98 /  20  20  20  10
BTR  75  96  77  99 /  20  20  20  10
ASD  74  95  75  97 /  20  20  20  20
MSY  79  95  79  96 /  10  20  20  20
GPT  76  95  77  97 /  20  20  20  20
PQL  74  96  74  98 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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