National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

472
FXUS64 KLIX 130830
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...IT WAS A QUIET AND DRY DAY YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS WORKED IN AND TEMPS BY 8Z HAD FALLEN INTO
THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. WITH WINDS WEAKENING AND MOSTLY CLR SKIES
LOOK FOR TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SWRN MS TO UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG
THE SOUTHSHORE AND EXTREME SELA.

L/W TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF US WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OFF TO OUR
EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT LEAVING THE LOWER MS VALLEY UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL CHANGE BY TUE AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF
AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE SERN CONUS TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. BY WED THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WELL OFF TO OUR EAST AND A CUT
OFF LOW THAT WAS OVER THE BAJA MON WILL FINALLY OPEN UP AND MOVE
TWRDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WED NIGHT AS S/W. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL SIT DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY WORK EAST TUE AND WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
RETURN FLOW TO SET UP TUE NIGHT WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING. THE
WEAKENING EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE IN THE MID LVLS AND MOISTURE
RETURNING TO THE AREA SHOULD AT THE LEAST BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS
WED AND WED NIGHT BUT WILL WE SEE ANY RAIN. THIS DOES NOT LOOK
LIKELY UNTIL THU AS THE S/W FINALLY PUSHES FURTHER INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...MDLS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A MOSTLY QUIET FCST
IN STORE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE WED/THU S/W PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST WITH S/W RIDGING TAKING PLACE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT LARGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
CONFIDENCE HIGH WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE LATEST MEX VALUES.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN WILL BE THU AND FRI AS THE EFFECTS OF THE
S/W ARE FINALLY FELT. THAT SAID THE BEST SUPPORT WILL PULL NORTH OF
THE REGION AND THERE WILL BE NO REAL LL FORCING I.E. BNDRY/FRONT/LL
CONVERGENCE. HGHTS DO FALL OVERNIGHT WED INTO THU MRNG AND THIS
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SPARK A FEW SHRA AND TSRA DURING
THE DAY BUT ONCE WE LOSE THE HEATING LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO DIE OFF.
AS FOR FRI. EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN S/W AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION
ANOTHER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRI. THAT
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ONCE AGAIN WILL LEAD TO ISLTD CONVECTION.
SAT SHOULD BE A RATHER QUIET DAY AS S/W RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE
KEEPING THE AREA HIGH AND DRY. AS FOR TEMPS WE WILL BE RIGHT AT IF
NOT SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL FINALLY. IF THIS IS THE CASE IT WILL BE THE
FIRST TIME THIS MONTH FOR A FEW SITES TO ACTUALLY HAVE AN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT TWO DAYS. ADVANCING CIRRUS MAY BRIEFLY
IMPART HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BUT NO OTHER ISSUES FOR AVIATION ARE
ANTICIPATED AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
MODEST COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE SHORT-TERM HAS WINDS ELEVATED
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS THIS MORNING...SHOULD LESSEN DURING THE
MID-MORNING HOURS. THEREAFTER...MODERATING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
WITH ONSHORE FLOW REGIME ONSETTING AND BECOMING STEADY STATE THROUGH
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS
NOT UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY AT THE EARLIEST. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  49  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  80  54  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  79  48  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  78  59  82  63 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  79  51  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  48  79  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: 24/RR