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140
FXUS64 KLIX 161955
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
255 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
UPPER IMPULSE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...AND ARE
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS MOVER EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AT MID
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING EASTWARD AND ARE EXPECTED TO
MISS LOUISIANA TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S AT 2 PM. DEW POINTS GENERALLY ARE IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...BUT CHANCES AND AREAL COVERAGE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

WILL CONTINUE MINIMAL MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. PER SWODY2...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE
IF...AND I REPEAT IF...CONVECTION DEVELOPS. ONCE THAT SYSTEM
PASSES EAST OF THE AREA...REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN
MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND IN AGREEMENT
WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

WEAK UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN ORIENTATION OF THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AT MID WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE WITH GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW...WHICH KEEPS PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ECMWF WOULD BE
A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE TROF AT MID WEEK...BUT EVEN
THEN...PROBABLY WOULD ONLY BE WORTHY OF ABOUT 20 PERCENT POPS.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 3-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SEVERAL SITES LIKELY TO REACH THE 90
DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME SOMEWHERE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HOWEVER THE LACK OF ACTIVITY ON RADAR WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS WOULD
BE MUCH LESS OF A THREAT. AS THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTH EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. CEILINGS OVERNIGHT COULD GO INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...

STEADY STATE ONSHORE WIND PATTERN UNDERWAY AND TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE. SEAS EXPECTED TO ALSO REMAIN AT
RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS WITH A GRADUAL GROUND SWELL BUILDUP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST DUE TO PERSISTENT FETCH FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION. 24/35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  85  68  87 /  10  20  10  10
BTR  70  87  71  88 /  10  20  10  10
ASD  69  84  69  85 /  10  20  10  10
MSY  71  86  71  85 /  10  20  10  10
GPT  70  81  70  82 /  10  20  10  10
PQL  67  83  67  84 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$