Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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024
FXUS64 KLIX 150437
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1137 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2014/

UPDATE...

MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT TO CLOUD COVER
AND LOWS. SKIES SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH CLEAR INLAND AND MOSTLY
CLEAR NEAR THE COAST. GIVEN THE CONTINUED LOWER DEWPOINTS IN MOST
AREAS AND LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WINDS...HAVE LOWERED THE LOWS A
DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10 AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. 22/TD

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

00Z LIX SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CENTERED
AROUND 700 MB. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS 1.14 INCHES AND SURFACE
BASED CAPE OF 1462 J/KG. LOW LEVEL WINDS AVERAGED ABOUT 5 KNOTS
FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR THE SURFACE BACKING TO NORTHWEST 3 TO 5K
FEET. ABOVE THAT...WINDS WERE MOSTLY WEST TO NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR
LESS UP TO 28K FEET...THEN PEAKING FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ONLY 36
KNOTS AT 43K FEET.

DECISION SUPPORT...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DIFFERENT DAY SAME STORY...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND NO CHANGE TO
FORECAST REASONING.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
OVER COASTAL WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF LOUISIANA.
DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TO DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN ITS RETURN TO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. BY SATURDAY...WILL MAINTAIN 10-20% POPS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
CHANCES INCREASE ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCES NEAR 30% FOR THE WHOLE
AREA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL FORCE ANOTHER FRONT
SOUTHWARD...BUT MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL STALL
BEFORE REACHING THE LOCAL AREA. SURFACE RIDGE AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL
BUILD IN THE REGION FROM THE EAST AND KEEP CONVECTION ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND FL040-050 DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THESE WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AND NOT AFFECT KHUM.

MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER NORTHERN GULF AS IS CONTINUES
TO DISSIPATE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION. OVERALL WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS
WITH WAVES/SEAS AT 2 FT OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW
NIGHTS WHERE WINDS MAY TOP OUT AT 12-13KTS IN THE WATERS EAST OF
THE MS DELTA...DURING THESE TIMES...SEAS MAY ALSO APPROACH 3 FT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  67  93  72  92 /  10  10  10  20
ASD  68  92  72  92 /  10  10  10  20
MSY  73  92  75  91 /  10  10  10  20
GPT  72  92  74  90 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  68  91  72  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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