Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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507
FXUS64 KLIX 240820
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA/S WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOW DEWPOINTS AND NEARLY CLOUDLESS
SKIES WILL GENERALLY ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO PERSIST BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE NORTH SHORE AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SOUTH SHORE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS. AFTERNOON HIGHS...HOWEVER...WILL GRADUALLY
WARM ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD
AND WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. THIS WILL MARK THE
START OF A VERY SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THEIR SLOW WARMING TREND. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
SO A BLAND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE. TWILL NOTE THAT
THE MEX SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE ON AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR
THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WHEN IT IS ACTUALLY
FORECASTING UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. STILL USED A BLEND...
BUT WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHT ON THE COOLER EURO MOS GUIDANCE.

MOVING INTO MIDWEEK...A COUPLE SHORT WAVES WILL IMPACT THE AREA.
THE FIRST WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE COAST...BUT IT NOW
LOOKS AS IF THIS INITIAL IMPULSE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE
CLEARING THE LOCAL AREA. THE FRONT WILL LOSE ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH AS
THE UPPER IMPULSE LIFTS AWAY...AND WILL STALL BEFORE REACHING THE
LOCAL AREA. A STRONGER IMPULSE LOOKS TO FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT
INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA SOME TIME LATE NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT TIMING. IN GENERAL AM
CARRYING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS DURING THE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
LIMITED EVEN AS THE FRONTS APPROACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VSBYS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG MAY RESTRICT
VSBY AT MCB AND HUM SATURDAY MORNING 10 AND 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A 1021MB HIGH FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO WEST TENNESSEE WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX ON THE LAND AREAS AND NEAR COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...A
SLIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN
SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 10
KNOTS AND SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  50  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  79  52  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  77  47  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  76  58  78  60 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  77  51  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  77  46  78  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...18
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM





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