Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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910
FXUS64 KLIX 180800
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL FALL LIKE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THE UPCOMING WEEK. A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE WEEK WITH A TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND AND ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION BY MID WEEK. BOTH FEATURES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND REINFORCE DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE THE SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN THE
DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASSES THAT WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION IN
THEIR WAKE...THE COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE
AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THEM. IN
FACT...THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THAT
WILL BE ONLY A SMALL CHANCE PRIMARILY IN THE OUTER WATERS DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE THE
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER
60S. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORT PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE WITH LIGHT FOG AND LOWERED
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT
TIME...MAINLY AT KHUM. WE MAY SEE A FEW MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH NORTH WINDS AND DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...FOG SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF
AN ISSUE SUNDAY MORNING. 35

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THIS
MORNING. GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER WEAK WITH WINDS IN MARINE AREAS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT REACHES THE COASTAL WATERS.
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NECESSARY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE THE COLD ADVECTION ABATES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A LITTLE BETTER FORECAST AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE THIS MORNING.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS KEEP ANY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT
WELL TO THE SOUTH...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EASTWARD TO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. HAVE KEPT A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE WIND FORECAST.
THIS WILL MEAN A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK...POSSIBLY AS STRONG AS 15 TO 20
KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW SWELL TO ENHANCE
WAVE HEIGHTS DURING THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.
FORTUNATELY...TIDAL RANGES ARE FORECAST TO BE SMALL FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  53  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  86  57  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  85  56  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  84  62  79  61 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  85  57  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  84  54  78  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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