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023
FXUS64 KLIX 120913
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS IN THE SHORT TERM AS MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING FROM MEXICO
COAST MAY FILTER SUNSHINE A BIT TODAY BUT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. SOME MID TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT IN INTERIOR LOCATIONS
AND MID 50S IN MARINE INFLUENCED AREAS WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL NIGHT BEFORE A WARMING TREND ONSETS LATER MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH SURFACE BASED HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
EAST AND OPENS THE AREA TO ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY...A MODEST LAKE
AND GULF BREEZE IS ANTICIPATED TO YIELD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THESE BOUNDARIES...BUT WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.
A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW REGIME SHOULD CARRY MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH WEAK GULF BREEZE POSSIBLY FOCUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN IS LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT HUM BUT EVEN VSBYS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING AT HUM
OVER THE LAST FEW HRS. CIGS ARE STILL OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA
BUT THEY ARE ABV 3500 FT AND THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT THROUGH THE
MORNING. WITH THAT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FCST. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK INTO THE
COASTAL WATER THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE CNTRL GULF
BY LATE THIS AFTN. THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE NRLY WINDS INITIALLY
THIS MORNING OVER THE OUTER WATERS BUT THE GRADIENT WILL STAY QUITE
LIGHT THIS AFTN UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WEAK
CAA WILL TAKE PLACE AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SCS HEADLINES WILL
BE NEEDED AT THE VERY LEAST THIS EVNG AND TONIGHT BUT AN ADV MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE WATERS EAST OF THE DELTA. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS RIGHT OVER THE
AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN RETURN WED NIGHT AS THE CNTR OF THE SFC
HIGH SHIFTS EAST. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVERS

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  47  80  75 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  80  49  80  76 /   0   0  10   0
ASD  79  49  80  75 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  78  56  79  74 /   0   0  10   0
GPT  79  49  80  77 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  79  48  80  78 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
CAB