Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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037
FXUS64 KLIX 231813
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1213 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
RAIN HAS ENDED AT ALL THE TAF AIRPORTS...SO THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE
FIRST 6 HOURS WILL BE LINGERING MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OR CLEAR OUT 20Z-22Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG SHOULD DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR
KHUM...KASD...AND KGPT. CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST LOW IFR CIGS AT
KMSY AND KNEW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER SO HAVE LEFT OUT THE
LOWER CONDITIONS FOR NOW. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AROUND DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER ON MONDAY
AS DRIER AIR SURGES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ALL EYES THIS MORNING WILL BE ON A STRONG SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS TRIGGERED AN
IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ENE THIS MORNING
JUST ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA THIS MORNING AS THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL MAINTAINS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. IN FACT THERE MAY BE A WATCH POSTED AT SOME POINT
THIS MORNING HOWEVER THERE ARE A STILL A FEW FACTORS THAT MAY KEEP
THE THREAT AT BAY. A SOUNDING AT 6Z SHOWED A DEEP MARINE LAYER
OVER 3500 FEET IN DEPTH OVER THE AREA. THIS IS A STABLE COOL LAYER
IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND WOULD PROHIBIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.
THAT MEANS THAT THE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS THAT WOULD ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND CAUSE
DAMAGE. ALSO THE INSTABILITY AND RICHER DEWPOINTS HAVE STAYED OFF
THE COAST AND IS HAVING A VERY HARD TIME GETTING INLAND AND THIS
AGAIN WOULD KEEP THE STRONG CONVECTION JUST ALONG THE COAST AND
OUT OVER THE GULF.

OVERALL THE MAIN THREAT FROM A SEVERE WEATHER STANDPOINT SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN THIS MORNING...THIS
IS NOT TO SAY THAT ANY OTHER AREAS COULD NOT GET SEVERE WEATHER
BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW SMALL STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE AND THESE STORMS WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
AS FAR AS THREATS GO...WE STILL ANTICIPATE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE AND STILL WITH STRONG
HELICITY...SOME EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A HEAVY RAIN
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. STILL EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. STAY WEATHER
AWARE THIS MORNING BY MONITORING OUR SOCIAL MEDIA PAGES AND OUR
WEB PAGE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THE FRONT DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL LATER ON TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE LAST TWO
FRONTS. HIGH PRESSURE STAYS FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 13/MH

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR AND EVEN SOME AREAS OF LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE
OBSERVED THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z WITH A
POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 12Z. CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS

MARINE...
A SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING. EXPECT SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS AND SOME WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE SWEEPS
THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE STILL UP AND WILL BE UP
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY AND AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL GET ANOTHER SURGE
BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             MONITORING RADAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  52  63  38 / 100  10  10  10
BTR  75  52  64  39 / 100  10  10  10
ASD  75  54  66  38 / 100  10  10  10
MSY  75  58  66  46 / 100  10  10  10
GPT  73  57  67  40 / 100  10  10  10
PQL  73  55  68  37 / 100  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$







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