Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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117
FXUS64 KLIX 262015
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
315 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WELL...THE CONVECTION OVER THE GULF EFFECTIVELY KEPT ANY TSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS FOR MOST OF TODAY...BUT
NOW THAT THE FRONT IS ENTERING THE LOCAL AREA...A NARROW AND
BROKEN BAND OF MOSTLY SHOWERS HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF
IT. INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST OF I-59 HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER BY
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY...SO THIS BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AREAS ALONG
AND EAT OF I-59 SAW SOME ACTIVITY EARLIER WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL UP TIL NOW...SO THE BAND MAY BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THESE AREAS. SILL EXPECTING RAINFALL TOTALS
TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AS THE BAND WILL BE MOVING AT A FAIRLY
DECENT CLIP.

FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION LAGS THE FRONT BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD STILL BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND ON TAP
WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE WORK WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH. NEXT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST...BUT SHOULD DROP FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT
JUST WEST OF KMCB...A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AFFECTING KNEW...KMSY AND KHUM. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT AFTER 0Z. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND
VFR CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN
NORTHERLY AND JUMP UP TO 20+ KNOTS WITH GUSTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 03Z UNTIL 15Z. SFC HIGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING WINDS TO EASE
AND SUPPORTING THE SHORT DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...
THOUGH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR A PERIOD
AFTER THE SCA EXPIRES. WINDS WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD. WINDS NOT
LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STAYING IN PLACE OVER EASTERN GULF.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  42  64  42  71 /  20   0   0  10
BTR  45  67  46  75 /  20   0   0  10
ASD  49  67  44  70 /  30   0   0  10
MSY  51  67  51  72 /  30   0   0  10
GPT  50  67  46  67 /  40   0   0  10
PQL  51  67  43  68 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

AVIATION...13/MH
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM



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