Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
459
FXUS64 KLIX 112125
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
425 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS PARKED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. LOOKING AT THE LATEST
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY A CU FIELD SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH THAT
ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. SO EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AS
THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY AND EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AND GO CALM.
THIS ALONG WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE INSERTED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECTING ANOTHER NICE DAY FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND BE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TOMORROW. 13/MH


.LONG TERM...
THINGS GET A LITTLE BIT BUSY IN THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY FOR THE AREA. LOW STRATUS AND FOG COULD BE AN
ISSUE AGAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE AREA AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
PUMP IN MOISTURE IN AHEAD OF A SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. LOOKING AT
SOME SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY SO THAT SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT CAP WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND WOULD SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE JET ENERGY AND VORT MAX WILL EJECT
OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS IS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGGING OUT OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY MORNING. THIS
OTHER SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EJECT OUT ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE BY TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND WITH THE LEFT OVER COLD
POOL OF THE SYSTEM. WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.

AS FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTS AN AREA JUST OFF
TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. THEY HAVE A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY. NOW IT REMAINS TO
BEEN SEEN IF THEY WOULD INCLUDE OUR FORECAST AREA IN SOME SORT OF
RISK...THE CONDITIONS REGARDING WIDESPREAD SEVERE CHANCES REMAIN
CONDITIONAL. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE
PARAMETERS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 35 TO 50 KNOT RANGE.
CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER
VALUES BEING DEPICTED. HOWEVER...THESE VALUES ARE CONDITIONAL
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS CLOUD COVER FROM NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AND
OVERALL CLOUDS COULD PROHIBIT GREAT DESTABILIZATION. THE ONE THING
THAT CONCERNS ME IS IF THERE ARE LESS CLOUDS AND WE ARE ABLE TO
DESTABILIZE AS FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH THAT DEEPENING SHORTWAVE COMING OUT
OF THE PLAINS...ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING JET STREAK OVER THE
FORECAST AREA COULD LEAD TO GREATER CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER
OUR AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS THAT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ARE IN THE 1.5 TO 1.9
INCH RANGE...SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS A VERY REAL THREAT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH DEEPER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WEATHER TREAT WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED IN THE COMING RUNS OF MODELS TO NAIL DOWN THE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND THINGS BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY INTO LATER NEXT
WEEK. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO SLIP THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD SPARK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHEN OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
CU FIELD BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FEET HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT THIS DECK TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH ONLY
HIGH CIRRUS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
AND FALL TO NEAR CALM AT MOST TERMINALS. LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED
NEAR SUNRISE WITH VIS AROUND IFR/MVFR. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER TMR AT 10+ KNOTS.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW. INCREASING
GRADIENT FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES FURTHER IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS...RESULTING IN
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 4
TO 6 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY...AND FINALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL
QUICKLY RAMP UP TO BETWEEN 6 AND 9 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS AND 3
TO 5 FEET IN THE SOUNDS AND LAKES.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...SWERV DEPLOYED FOR FRENCH QUARTER FEST.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  57  79  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  60  81  63  82 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  60  80  63  80 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  62  80  65  80 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  62  78  64  78 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  57  78  60  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.