Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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896
FXUS64 KLIX 151606 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1106 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...EARLY MORNING FCST PACKAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND
WILL MAKE LITTLE TO NO CHANGES THIS MORNING. CURRENT TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS (WITH SOME UPPER 80S
ALSO ALREADY NOTED). STILL EXPECTING UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
ACROSS FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY CARRYING A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND
RADAR DOES INDICATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS MOVING NORTHWEST AND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO SPREAD INLAND AND ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON.

.MARINE UPDATE...NO MAJOR UPDATES TO MARINE GRIDS THIS MORNING.
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO MARINE WIND GRIDS FOR THE MORNING
UPDATE...BUT THIS DIDN`T RESULT IN ANY NOTICEABLE CHANGES TO THE
COASTAL WATERS FCST PRODUCT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM
SOUTH AND ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE MOSTLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
MIDWEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...IN THE MID LVL A RIDGE IS CNTRD OVER THE GULF STATES.
STRONG S/W IS CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE DESERT SW N
OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST. AT THE SFC THE OLD BNDRY WHICH IS
QUICKLY LOSING ITS IDENTITY IS STILL DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA. IN
ADDITION OVERNIGHT MAJOR HURRICANE ODILE HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER
THE SRN BAJA NEAR CABO. /CAB/

SHORT TERM...THINGS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
SHRA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RECOVERED
SOME WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT 8Z.

TODAY THE FCST IS AS COMPLICATED AS IT HAS BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCT TO POSSIBLY NUM STORMS BUT THIS
ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE AND VERY MUCH UNDERPERFORMING.
THAT SAID DO FEEL LIKE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY. MID
LVL TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN SOME. AT THE SAME TIME MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH PWS POSSIBLY JUST UNDER 2.2" BY
THIS AFTN. IN ADDITION AN INVERTED LL TROUGH PROVIDING SOME
CONVERGENCE SHOULD SET UP OVER THE REGION WHILE THERE WILL BE WEAK
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ALL OF THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES
AND SOME DECENT COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. MOS GUI IS ALL OVER WITH
THE MET AND MAV BOTH ON THE LOW END...AROUND 30% BUT THE ECMWF MOS
IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH 40 TO 60%. WILL GO WITH A BLEND APPROACH
AND GENERALLY HAVE 30-50% ACROSS THE CWA.

CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER FOR TUE AS RAIN POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE AT
ITS HIGHEST FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE S/W THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ESE THROUGH THE GRT LAKES
AND INTO THE OH VALLEY MON NIGHT AND THIS WILL HELP TO DIG THE L/W
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WHILE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES JUST WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS SET UP SHOULD HELP DRIVE A SECOND COLD
FRONT OUT OF THE PLAINS TWRDS THE LOW MS VALLEY TUE. MOISTURE WILL
POOL AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND COMBINE WITH BROAD LIFT ALOFT AS THE
HGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING L/W TROUGH. POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED ACCORDINGLY TO 50-70% ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND MAY NEED
TO BE RAISED MORE. AS FOR ACCUMULATION NOT ANTICIPATING VERY HEAVY
RAIN BUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. /CAB/

LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW. THE
FRONT TUE/TUE NIGHT WILL WORK INTO THE GULF EARLY WED MORNING AND WE
MOVE UNDER NW FLOW. THE ERN CONUS TROUGH AXIS WILL WORK EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT WITH A MID LVL RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. DUE TO THE THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS L/W
TROUGH AND QUICKLY REBUILDING RIDGE LL TEMPS ACTUALLY WARM QUICKLY
AND THE ONLY REAL DIFFERENCE WE SEE FROM OUR FRONT IS LOWER
DEWPOINTS FOR ABOUT TWO DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES RATHER LOW
THROUGH FRI WITH SLIGHT MOISTURE RECOVERY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND ISLTD TO SCT CONVECTION RETURNING SAT/SUN. /CAB/

MARINE...FRONT IS ALREADY SLOWLY LOSING ITS IDENTITY AND SHOULD BE
NONEXISTENT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED WELL OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAK BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS
MAINTAINING ENERLY WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS NOW. STARTING TODAY...A
LIGHTER WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE MARINE AREA. /CAB/

AVIATION...EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY AN A CHANCE OF SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN A FEW TAF SITES. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
CONVECTION IN THE TAFS FOR THE COASTAL SITES EVEN ADDED SOME TEMPO
GROUPS ANTICIPATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AT THE SITE. 13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  72  87  68 /  40  40  50  20
BTR  90  73  87  70 /  40  40  70  20
ASD  88  74  88  71 /  50  40  70  30
MSY  88  76  88  75 /  50  40  70  30
GPT  88  75  88  72 /  50  40  70  30
PQL  88  74  88  70 /  50  40  70  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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