Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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897
FXUS64 KLIX 290842
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
342 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE COMMENCING TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN DOING
SO...IT HAS SPLIT RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. BY DOING
SO...THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE OPENED UP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INFLUX OF MOISTURE RICH AIR JUST ON THE
CUSP OF THE COASTAL WATERS OF CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
SEEN ON RADAR ALONG THIS EDGE OF MOISTURE. HAVE STAGGERED HOURLY POPS
TO TRY TO BEST TIME COVERAGE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD RANGE FROM LOWER 40S IN SW MISSISSIPPI TO
70 ALONG THE COAST.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE...PRECIP WATER OVER 2
INCHES...WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A MAX ON SATURDAY.
THUS THINKING COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND RAINFALL RATES QUITE
HIGH. IN ADDITION...HAVE INCREASED POPS EVEN MORE ON SATURDAY FROM
PREVIOUS FCST  OF 70 TO 80 PERCENT FOR ABOUT 2/3`S OF THE CWA. THIS
IS ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE BUT NOT BY MUCH. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT DAILY WARMING...SO HAVE KEPT
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD START TO COME BACK DOWN STARTING NEXT WEEK AS
THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH RACES NORTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GFS AND
ECMWF STILL SHOWING A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND INTO MEXICO GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR ALTHOUGH NO TROPICAL THREAT EXISTS AT THIS
TIME.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL A HIGHER RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE
TERMINALS TODAY.  GIVEN THIS RISK...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP WITH
TS WORDING AND MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM AROUND 18Z THROUGH 24Z.
OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE RISK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
ALL OF THE TERMINALS. 32

&&

.MARINE...

A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  TODAY INTO TOMORROW...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE UP
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD PUSH WINDS INTO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE
OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS.   AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INLAND
THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY.  WITH THE RIDGE STILL IN
PLACE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE THE RULE FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 5
FEET THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  74  86  73 /  40  40  80  30
BTR  90  76  87  74 /  50  50  80  30
ASD  89  78  88  75 /  60  40  70  30
MSY  88  79  88  78 /  60  40  70  40
GPT  89  79  87  77 /  60  40  70  30
PQL  90  78  88  75 /  60  40  70  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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