Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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306
FXUS64 KLIX 160043
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
743 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH LAUNCH THIS EVENING BUT BALLOON DID BURST
SOMEWHAT PREMATURELY AT 69.2 MB OR 18936 METERS/62126 FEET...OR
ONLY 11.76 MILES UP. THE FLIGHT BURST ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
OFFICE ON THE NORTHERN SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN NEAR SALT BAYOU
ENTRANCE. THE SOUNDING EXHIBITS ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SURFACE TO
7700 FEET AT BASE OF SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...ISOTHERMAL TO 11.5KFT
THEN PSEUDO TO A LOWER TROPOPAUSE AT 233 MB/37.2KFT. WITHIN A 5
DEGREE SPREAD ON MOISTURE SURFACE TO BASE OF INVERSION...THEN DRY
ALOFT WITH A HINT OF A THIN CIRRUS RESTRICTION AROUND 26KFT. WINDS
WERE SE-E 5-15 KT SURFACE TO 5KFT...W-SW 5 KT TO 10.3KFT...ESE
5-15 KT TO 13.7KFT THEN SW-NW REMAINDER OF TROPOSPHERE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.51 INCHES...LIFTED INDEX -6.5 AND STORM
MOTION A VERY WEAK 168/01 KT...CAPE OF 3812 J/KG.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO FOREGO MENTION IN TAFS EXCEPT FOR PROB30 GROUP AT
KMSY FOR LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE CONSIDERATIONS BETWEEN 16/20Z AND
16/22Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  93  71  92 /  10  20  10  20
BTR  74  94  74  94 /  10  20  10  10
ASD  74  91  74  90 /  10  20  10  20
MSY  77  92  75  90 /  10  20  10  10
GPT  75  90  75  90 /  10  30  10  20
PQL  71  91  72  89 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
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