Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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897
FXUS64 KLIX 280136
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
836 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOWEST PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO
PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS INCREASED
TO 2.17 INCHES FROM JUST UNDER 2 INCHES THIS MORNING. THIS IS
ALMOST 125 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL VALUE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
STILL FAIRLY UNSTABLE WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -4 AND NEARLY 2100
J/KG OF CAPE...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND NO
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES TO PROVIDE LIFT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.

00Z BALLOON INFO: ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS EVENING WITH NO PROBLEMS.
THE BALLOON POPPED AT 6.1 MB...OR AROUND 21.6 MILES ABOVE THE
GROUND. AT THE TIME IT POPPED...IT WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...ABOUT 20 MILES WEST OF THE RELEASE
LOCATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD AND SHOULD BE OVER SOUTH TEXAS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING
WESTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOCALLY...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED OFF OF LAKE AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 90
DEGREE MARK.

SHORT TERM...

THURSDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR PRECIPITATION PATTERS TO TODAY WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FORMING MAINLY OFF OF LAKE AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AS TRIGGER TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE
REACHED.

AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY RELOCATES TO NORTH
FLORIDA BY FRIDAY...OUR STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO BE PUMPED INTO
THE AREA. AS A STRONG TROF MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...IT WILL PULL ONE OF A SERIES OF EASTERLY
WAVES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO ITS CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER
RIDGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
CONSIDERABLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY
POPS IN THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD
THIS WELL DEPICTED...SO NO REAL CHANGES TO OUR POP FORECAST. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AGAIN NEARING 2.25 INCHES ON
SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FOCUS OFFSHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW...AT LEAST IN
AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE MIDDAY RAINFALL...AND CLOSE TO NORMAL ON
FRIDAY. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...HIGHS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S SATURDAY. IF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY...THAT MAY EVEN BE AMBITIOUS. 35

LONG TERM...

MAIN FORCING FROM UPPER TROF WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHING
ITSELF ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA. THIS WILL RETURN THE AREA TO THE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG LAKE AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. 35

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST. AFTN CONVECTION
WILL DISSIPATE AND MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST AFTER 00Z. ANY LOW CU WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE 5Z AND ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER THAT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW. /CAB/

MARINE...

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE WRN GULF HAS GOTTEN SLIGHTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED BUT AFTER RECON WENT IN THERE WAS NO CLEAR CENTER
OF CIRCULATION AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO TX OVERNIGHT. THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE FL STRAITS EARLY FRI.
THIS MAY TEMPORARILY INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS FRI LEADING TO 10-15 KTS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT OUT OF
THE EAST/ESE. AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE WNW WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SRLY ON SAT. NEXT WAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION SUN.
/CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  71  91  72 /  10  10  30  10
BTR  91  73  93  74 /  30  20  30  10
ASD  91  73  92  75 /  30  10  30  10
MSY  91  77  90  78 /  40  20  30  10
GPT  91  75  91  77 /  20  10  30  10
PQL  90  71  91  74 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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